000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090914
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Oct 9 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Lidia is centered near 18.2N 112.4W at 09/0900 UTC, 
moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with 
gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft, with the 12 ft seas 
extending within 120 nm NE and 180 nm SE quadrants, and 90 nm W 
semicircle of center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong 
convection is noted within 60 nm NE and 150 nm SW semicircles of 
center. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should
approach Las Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on
Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night.
Strengthening is forecast later today and Tuesday, and Lidia is 
expected to be a hurricane when it approaches Las Islas Marias 
and the coast of west-central Mexico.  Lidia is expected to produce 
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches 
through Wednesday across the state of Nayarit, southern portions 
of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of 
Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash 
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of 
higher terrain near the coast.  A dangerous storm surge is 
expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the 
south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the 
surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Swells 
generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the 
Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Max is centered near 16.8N 101.5W at 09/0900 UTC,
moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. 
Peak seas are around 13 ft within 60 nm E and 30 nm W semicircles.
Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within
30 nm NE and 120 nm SW semicircles of center. On the forecast 
track, Max should make landfall later today within the warning 
area, then move farther inland over southern Mexico. Max could 
get a little stronger before making landfall later today, with 
rapid weakening expected by this evening.  Max should dissipate 
over Mexico on Tuesday. Max is expected to produce rainfall totals 
of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday 
across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections
of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely 
produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides 
in areas of higher terrain near the coast. Swells generated by Max 
will affect the southern coast of Mexico for the next day or 
two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and 
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 
weather office. 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S.
Lidia and T.S. Max NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N100W, then resumes 
SW of T.S. Lidia near 12N120W to 1009 mb low pressure located 
near 11N125W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 86W and 89W, from 08N
to 11N between 92W and 95W, and from 09N to 11N between 125W and
128W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Two tropical cyclones are forecast to make landfall in Mexico 
this week. Please, refer to the Special Features section above 
for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and Tropical Storm Max. 
Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through mid week 
across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters.

High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing gentle to moderate NW
to N winds. The ridge will persist through mid-week. The pressure
gradient will tighten between the ridge and tropical cyclone 
Lidia supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds beginning
tonight. Winds and seas will further increase Tue night into Wed
as a cold front moves across this area. In the Gulf of California,
gentle to moderate southerly winds will prevail through Tue, 
except in the southern part of the Gulf where marine conditions 
will deteriorate as Lidia approaches Las Marias Islands.

For the tropical cyclones forecast, Lidia will move to 18.7N 111.6W 
this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.4N 109.7W Tue 
morning, 20.7N 107.2W Tue afternoon, move inland and weaken to a 
tropical storm near 22.6N 104.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed 
afternoon. Max will move to 17.5N 101.4W this afternoon, move 
inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.7N 101.2W Tue 
morning, and dissipate Tue afternoon.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The most recent scatterometer pass indicates mainly light and
variable winds N of 04N, and light to gentle winds S of 04N. 
Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the region in southerly 
swell. 

For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected
over the next several days. Mainly light to gentle winds will 
persist N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds S 
of it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the 
offshore forecast waters with seas in the 4 to 7 ft range. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on Tropical Storm Lidia and Tropical Storm Max.

A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. A
1009 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 11N125W. 
Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are in the SE quadrant of the low 
center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of Lidia, extending
as far south as 10N. Similar wind speeds are also noted south of
the monsoon trough between 123W and 128W. Elsewhere gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough.  
North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail, 
except W of 135W where gentle to moderate trades are noted.
Outside of the tropical cyclones, seas are generally 4 to 6 ft N
of 20N and 5 to 7 ft S of 20N.

For the forecast, a ridge will prevail W of 120W through mid-
week. The low pressure will move eastward over the next couple of
days with the associated fresh winds and building seas of 8-9 
ft. A cold front will approach to 30N140W today and move across 
the northern forecast waters Mon night through Wed. Another cold
front will reach 30N by mid-week. 

$$
GR