000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090352 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 18.2N 112.6W at 09/0300 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft, with the 12 ft seas extending within 150 nm NE, 180 nm SE, 90 nm SW, and 120 nm NW quadrants. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N between 111W and 117W. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia should approach the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico on Tuesday, and move inland over west-central Mexico Tuesday night. Little change in strength is expected overnight. Strengthening is forecast on Monday and Tuesday, and Lidia is expected to be a hurricane when it approaches the Islas Marias and the coast of west-central Mexico. Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state of Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Depression Sixteen-E has strengthened into Tropical Storm Max 09/0300 UTC. At this time, Max is centered near 16.3N 101.9W at 09/0300 UTC, moving north- northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft within 45 nm NE, 60 nm SE, and 30 nm NW quadrants. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm NE and 150 nm SW semicircles of center. On the forecast track, Max is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico within the warning area by late Monday. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours before landfall, and rapid weakening is expected after the system moves inland on Tuesday. Max is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Tuesday across the states of Guerrero, Michoacan and the coastal sections of western Oaxaca in southwest Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia and T.D. Sixteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 12N100W then resumes SW of T.S. Lidia near 12N115W to 1009 mb low pressure located near 11N126W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N E of 88W, and N of 13N between 90W and 92.5W. Scattered moderate convection can be found from 06N to 08N between 81W and 84W, from 10N to 13N between 113W and 118W and from 06N to 13N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Two tropical cyclones are forecast to make landfall in Mexico this week. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and newly upgraded Tropical Storm Max. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through mid week across the southern and southwestern Mexico offshore waters. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. The ridge will persist through mid-week. The pressure gradient will tighten between the ridge and tropical cyclone Lidia supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds beginning Mon night. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast to prevail through Tue. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 18.8N 112.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 19.4N 110.8W Mon evening, 20.3N 108.7W Tue morning, 21.8N 106.1W Tue evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 23.7N 103.4W Wed morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 25.6N 100.6W Wed evening. Lidia will dissipate late Thu. Max will move to 17.0N 102.0W Mon morning, 17.8N 101.9W Mon evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 18.6N 101.6W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are noted N of 10N while gentle to moderate winds prevail S of 10N. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft across the region in southerly swell. For the forecast, little change in the weather pattern is expected over the next several days. Mainly light to gentle winds will persist N of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds S of it. Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and newly upgraded Tropical Storm Max. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 120W. A 1009 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 11N126W. fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are in the SE quadrant of the low center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail south of Lidia, extending as far south as 10N. Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough with 5 to 7 ft seas. Farther south, southerly swell bringing 6-7 ft seas are noted S of the equator. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will prevail W of 120W through mid- week. The low pressure will move eastward over the next couple of days with the associated fresh winds and building seas of 8-10 ft. A cold front will approach to 30N140W on Mon and move across the northern waters Mon night through Wed. Another cold front will reach 30N by mid-week. $$ GR