016 AXPZ20 KNHC 071557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 16.2N 112.2W at 07/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 120 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 21N between 110W and 116W. Lidia will gradually turn toward the northwest and north this weekend, followed by a slightly faster northeastward motion on Monday. Little change in strength is forecast this weekend, but Lidia could become a hurricane early next week. Swells generated by Lidia will begin to affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure centered a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are expected to support further development of this system during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next day or two. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then turn northward and move toward the southern coast of Mexico late Sunday and Monday. This system could produce heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance of development in 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of El Salvador near 14N90W to a low pres near 14N98W 1007 mb to 16N103W. The monsoon trough resumes W of Lidia near 12N117W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 18N between 96W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 118W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and EP99. Scatterometer showed strong winds associated with Lidia about 300 nm SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. This is also likely bringing seas to near 20 ft in the outer portions of the SW Mexico offshore waters. Farther north, a weak ridge continues to extend across the region north of 15N. Latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate N winds N of 20N off the Baja California coast. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within NW swell. Light to gentle winds persist in the Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Seas are around 5 ft near the entrance of the Gulf. In the southern Mexico offshore waters, moderate to fresh winds are noted near EP99 with seas around 7 ft. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere in this area. Seas range 5 to 7 ft within mostly S swell. Strong thunderstorms are noted in the Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan offshore waters. Thunderstorms are also occurring around Jalisco and Nayarit. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 16.5N 112.6W this evening, 17.1N 112.8W Sun morning, 17.9N 112.7W Sun evening, 18.6N 112.0W Mon morning, 19.1N 110.9W Mon evening, and strengthen to a hurricane near 19.8N 109.0W Tue morning. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 21.6N 105.4W by early Wed. Dangerous marine conditions can be expected through early next week. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure centered a couple of hundred miles southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec could develop into a tropical depression this weekend. The disturbance is forecast to move toward the southern coast of Mexico late Sunday and Monday. Heavy rainfall could occur along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle WSW winds are noted across the Central American offshore waters with 5 to 7 ft seas in S to SW swell. Farther south in the South American offshore waters, gentle to moderate S winds prevail. Seas are also 5 to 7 ft in this area within mostly S swell. Thunderstorms continue to across the Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. The monsoon trough has lifted north toward the Guatemala and El Salvador region and is acting as a focal point for thunderstorms in their respective offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted along the Colombia coastline. For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell will continue to support 5 to 7 ft seas across the Central American offshore waters through the weekend. Otherwise, the gentle to moderate winds across the area will become light to gentle by the weekend and persist through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Moderate to fresh winds continue around the area near 13N128W with seas around 9 ft. West of this area, scatterometer depicts a trough around 134W producing moderate to fresh winds with seas around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted south of Lidia from 06N to 11N between 108W and 114W. Otherwise, moderate SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. North of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail under the influence of the ridge with seas 5 to 7 ft. Southerly swell is bringing seas to 8 ft across the southern portions of the forecast waters from 05N southward between 92W and 128W. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail W of 120W through early next week. The fresh winds around 126W will diminish by Sun with the 8 ft seas slowly subsiding through the weekend. The southerly swell in the southern forecast waters will subside by tonight into Sun morning. $$ ERA