000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060937 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 16.2N 110.3W at 06/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently near 18 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 75 nm in the western semicircle and 60 nm in the eastern semicircle. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. Lidia will continue to move WNW through Friday night or Saturday morning with a slight increase forward speed. Later this weekend, a turn back toward the west-northwest and then northwest is forecast. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane later today. Rough to high seas are expected to impact the southwestern Mexico and southern Baja California offshore waters through the weekend, including near Socorro Island. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (EP99): An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and a high chance in 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 11N86W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 13N95W to 15N103W. The monsoon trough then extends W of Lidia near 13N114W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 94W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia and EP99. Rough seas and strong winds persist south of Socorro Island and beyond 160 nm off Cabo Corrientes due to the outer periphery of Lidia. Farther north, a weak ridge continues to dominate the waters north of 20N. This is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas ranging 4 to 6 ft off the Baja California coast. Gentle to moderate winds with seas to 4 ft are noted in the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, gentle breezes are noted off southern Mexico, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in primarily S swell. Outside of the influence of Lidia, scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and off the Oaxaca offshore waters due to the broad low pressure associated with EP99. For the forecast, Lidia will bring dangerous marine conditions across the Revillagigedo Islands through early next week. Meanwhile, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west- northwestward. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and a high chance in 7 days. Rough seas can be expected with this system late this weekend and into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador along the monsoon trough. S swell to 8 ft may be within the waters of this area, beyond 90 nm off the coast. Light breezes are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in S swell. Showers and thunderstorms continue along the Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica coasts. Otherwise, no significant convection is noted elsewhere at this time. For the forecast, the long-period S to SW swell will support combined seas around 8 ft off El Salvador and Guatemala beyond 90 nm through Sat. Light to gentle breezes will persist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft combined seas into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Fresh NE winds are likely still occurring within 200 nm north of a 1010 mb low pressure near 13N126W. Seas are likely near 8 ft in this area. Fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft are between 100W and 120W south of Lidia. Gentle to moderate SW flow with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell to 8 ft may be entering the waters as far north as 01N. Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Light to gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure areas along the monsoon trough west of 120W will dissipate by late this weekend, allowing winds and seas to diminish by early next week. Little change is expected elsewhere across the region. $$ AReinhart