000 AXPZ20 KNHC 060358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 15.8N 110.1W at 06/0300 UTC, moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently near 16 ft with the 12 ft seas extending 60 nm in the western semicircle, 45 nm in the SE quadrant and 30 nm in the NE quadrant. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Lidia is expected to continue moving westward through Friday night or Saturday morning with a slight increase forward speed. Later this weekend, a turn back toward the west-northwest and then northwest is forecast. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane this weekend. Seas will continue to build over the next few days, reaching near 20 ft by Sat into Sun. Rough to high seas are expected to impact the southwestern Mexico and southern Baja California offshore waters through the weekend, including Socorro Island. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (EP99): A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward. This system has a medium chance of development in 48 hours and a high chance in 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 11N86W to a 1008 mb low pressure near 13N95W to 15N103W. The monsoon trough then extends W of Lidia near 14N116W to a 1010 mb low pres near 13N126W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 97W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 117W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Rough seas and strong winds are noted south of Socorro Island and beyond 120 nm off Cabo Corrientes currently, on the outer periphery of Lidia. Elsewhere farther north, a weak ridge dominates the waters north of 20N, supporting gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle breezes are noted off southern Mexico, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in primarily SW swell. For the forecast, Lidia will bring dangerous marine conditions across the Revillagigedo Islands through early next week. Meanwhile, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located well south-southeast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward along the coast of southern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are evident off the coast of Guatemala and El Salvador this afternoon, north of the monsoon trough. SW swell to 9 ft may be entering the waters in this area, beyond 90 nm off the coast. Light breezes are noted elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in SW swell. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time. For the forecast, the long-period SW swell will support combined seas to 10 ft off El Salvador and Guatemala beyond 90 nm into Sat. Light to gentle breezes will persist elsewhere with 5 to 7 ft combined seas into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed a patch of fresh NE winds within 120 nm north of the 1010 mb low pressure near 14N125W. Seas are likely near 8 ft in this area. Moderate SW flow with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the monsoon trough, with fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft between 100W and 120W south of Lidia. Southerly swell to 8 ft may be entering the waters as far north as 02N. Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure areas along the monsoon trough west of 120W will dissipate, allowing winds and seas to diminish through the next several days. Little change is expected elsewhere across the region. $$ AKR