000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052138
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 5 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 16.0N 109.9W at 05/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft. Numerous 
moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm in 
the western semicircle and northeast quadrant of the center. 
Lidia will gradually intensify as it moves slowly to the WNW,
reaching hurricane strength southeast of Clarion Island Sat.
Looking ahead, Lidia is expected to turn more to the north then
northeast Sun and move between Clarion and Socorro Islands Mon.  
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 15N105W, and from 
14N115W to 1010 mb low pressure near 14N125W to a second 1010 mb
low pressure center near 10N134W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is evident from 12N to 14N between 94W and 
97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia.

Rough seas and strong winds are noted south of Socorro Island and
beyond 120 nm off Cabo Corrientes currently, on the outer 
periphery of Lidia. Elsewhere farther north, a weak ridge 
dominates the waters north of 20N, supporting gentle to moderate 
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas. Gentle breezes are noted off southern
Mexico, with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in primarily SW swell.

For the forecast, Lidia will bring dangerous marine conditions
across the Revillagigedo Islands through early next week.
Meanwhile, a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms located well south-southeast of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec is associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week 
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward along the
coast of southern Mexico. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are evident off the coast of
Guatemala and El Salvador this afternoon, north of the monsoon
trough. SW swell to 9 ft may be entering the waters in this area,
beyond 90 nm off the coast. Light breezes are noted elsewhere, 
with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in SW swell. No significant shower 
or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time.

For the forecast, the long-period SW swell will support combined
seas to 10 ft off El Salvador and Guatemala beyond 90 nm into 
Sat. Light to gentle breezes will persist elsewhere with 5 to 7 
ft combined seas into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia.

A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed a patch of fresh NE
winds within 120 nm north of the 1010 mb low pressure near
14N125W. Seas are likely near 8 ft in this area. Moderate SW flow
with 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the monsoon trough, with 
fresh SW winds and seas to 8 ft between 100W and 120W south of
Lidia. Southerly swell to 8 ft may be entering the waters as far
north as 02N. Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Gentle
breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the low pressure areas along the monsoon trough
west of 120W will dissipate, allowing winds and seas to diminish
through the next several days. Little change is expected 
elsewhere across the region.

$$
Christensen