875 AXPZ20 KNHC 040248 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0210 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 13.4N 107.9W at 04/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 420 nm in the NW semicircle. A northwest to north-northwest motion with a slower forward speed will continue for the next couple of days. Beginning on Thursday, a turn to the west-northwest and west are expected. Slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to low pressure near 10N90W to 12N101W, then resumes WSW of Lidia near 12N114W to low pressure near 12N125W to low pressure near 12N133W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 04N to 14N between 90W and 105W, and from 03N to 09N between 120W and 133W. Similar convection is within 120 nm in the NW semicircle of the low near 12N125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico, along with winds of moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW across the waters W of 110W including offshore Baja California, and 4-5 ft in mixed swell elsewhere in the open waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 14.2N 108.4W Wed morning, 15.0N 108.9W Wed evening, 15.5N 109.4W Thu morning, 15.7N 109.9W Thu evening, 15.7N 110.5W Fri morning, and 15.7N 111.4W Fri evening, 15.5N 112.9W Sat evening, and becoming a hurricane near 15.7N 114.1W Sun evening. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night through Sun morning. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through Sat along with mainly moderate seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nautical miles south of the coast of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. This system could be located to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late in the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring to the south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft in S swell across the offshore waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the coast and offshore from Colombia northward. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the week, except for locally fresh SW winds from the Equator to 10N through Wed. New long- period southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands tonight through Wed night, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, several weak low pressure areas are analyzed along the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate winds prevail across the open waters, locally fresh N fo 28N between 130W and 137W, and from 05N to 10N between 102W and 110W. Seas are 7-9 ft mainly in northerly swell across the waters N of 17N and W of 126W. Seas are 7-9 ft in southerly swell S of 10N between 100W and 130W. Seas of mainly 5-7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 14.2N 108.4W Wed morning, 15.0N 108.9W Wed evening, 15.5N 109.4W Thu morning, 15.7N 109.9W Thu evening, 15.7N 110.5W Fri morning, and 15.7N 111.4W Fri evening, 15.5N 112.9W Sat evening, and becoming a hurricane near 15.7N 114.1W Sun evening. Elsewhere, winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days, locally fresh at times along and just N of the monsoon trough near any transient low pressure areas. The northerly swell across the northern waters will gradually decay through mid- week. Meanwhile, southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend from around 05N southward, decaying thereafter. $$ Lewitsky