727 AXPZ20 KNHC 031552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 12.3N 107.6W at 03/1500 UTC, or about 445 nm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving west- northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm NE quadrant and 210 nm W semicircle. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast over the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane towards the end of this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 12N104W, then continues W of Tropical Storm Lidia near 10N110W to 1007 mb low pressure near 12N124W to 10N131W to 12N140W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is seen from 03N to 11.5N between 77W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 93W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 10N between 108W and 129W, and from 07N to 12N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on newly formed Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NNW winds prevail offshore Baja California S of 30N. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec, also shown by the ASCAT. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 2-4 ft in the southern and central Gulf of California and 1-3 ft in the northern Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 14N109W Wed morning, 15.5N110W Thu morning, strengthen to a 65 kt hurricane Fri morning near 16N111W, then change little in intensity as it moves to near 16N112W Sat morning and 16N114W Sun morning. Lidia will begin directly affecting Mexico offshore forecast zones well to the WSW of Jalisco and Colima, and well to the south of Cabo San Lucas Thu and continue into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate seas will not vary much into the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the immediate area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, possibly increasing to fresh to strong this weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will continue nearshore Baja California from near Punta Eugenia southward today. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, except for moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. North of 06N, seas are 4-6 ft in S swell. South of 06N, seas are 5-7 ft in S swell. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring in the Gulf of Panama, southward to 05N. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the week. New long-period southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by mid-week, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of the coast of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west- northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on newly formed Tropical Storm Lidia. and on a low embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N124W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail N of 12N and W of 125W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, except moderate to fresh S winds south of the monsoon trough between 102W and 120W. Seas are 7-9 ft in northerly swell N of 19N and west of 125W. Seas are 7-8 ft in SE swell S of 09N between 105W and 130W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Lidia will move to 14N109W Wed morning, 15.5N110W Thu morning, strengthen to a 65 kt hurricane Fri morning near 16N111W, then change little in intensity as it moves to near 16N112W Sat morning and 16N114W Sun morning. Elsewhere, the northerly swell across the northern waters will gradually decay through mid-week. The low pressure area embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N124W is forecast to continue to produce moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft on the NW side before weakening mid-week while not moving much. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days. Meanwhile, southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend from around 05N southward. $$ Hagen