000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030845 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly formed Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 11.8N 107.0W at 03/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is in a band between 240 nm and 420 nm in the W semicircle, and also from 05N to 10N between 106W and 114W. A turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is forecast over the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and Lidia could become a hurricane towards the end of this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near Tropical Storm Lidia, along 106W/107W from 02N to 17N, and is described more above. A tropical wave is along 124W from 02N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Low pressure of 1010 mb is along the tropical wave near 12N124W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm in the S quadrant of the low, and from 04N to 08N between 120W and 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N75W to Tropical Storm Lidia to low pressure near 12N124W to 10N130W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 77W and 97W, and from 07N to 12N between 130W and 140W. Similar convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 118W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on newly formed Tropical Storm Lidia. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail offshore Baja California S of 30N per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec, also shown by the ASCAT. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the open waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2-3 ft, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 12.7N 108.1W this afternoon, 13.6N 108.9W Wed morning, 14.4N 109.2W Wed afternoon, 15.2N 109.5W Thu morning, 15.5N 109.9W Thu afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 110.6W Fri morning. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 15.7N 111.7W early Sat. Elsewhere, moderate seas will not vary much into the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the immediate area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, possibly increasing to fresh to strong this weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California from near Punta Eugenia southward today. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, except locally fresh SW winds offshore southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas are 4-6 ft in S swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from offshore Colombia northward. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the week. New long-period southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by mid-week, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nautical miles south of the coast of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on newly formed Tropical Storm Lidia. and on a low embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N124W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail N of 12N and W of 125W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 7-9 ft in northerly swell N of 24N. Seas are 7-9 ft in SE swell S of 03N between 105W and 130W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere in mixed swell. For the forecast, Lidia will move to 12.7N 108.1W this afternoon, 13.6N 108.9W Wed morning, 14.4N 109.2W Wed afternoon, 15.2N 109.5W Thu morning, 15.5N 109.9W Thu afternoon, and strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 110.6W Fri morning. Lidia will change little in intensity as it moves to 15.7N 111.7W early Sat. Elsewhere, the northerly swell across the northern waters will gradually decay through mid-week. The low pressure area embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N124W is forecast to continue to produce moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft on the NW side before weakening mid-week while not moving much. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days. Meanwhile, southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend from around 05N southward. $$ Lewitsky