000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030257 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a broad 1008 mb area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico near 11N106W. This low is along a tropical wave near 105W/106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 101W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05N to 10N between 103W and 113W. Winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas of 7 to 8 ft are likely currently occurring with this area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move generally northwestward through the end of the week. The system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 105W/106W and is described more above. A tropical wave is along 123W/124W from 02N to 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Low pressure of 1010 mb is along the tropical wave near 12N124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N74W to low pressure near 11N106W to low pressure near 12N124W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 77W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 133W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on a developing area of low pressure near 11N106W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail offshore Baja California S of 30N. Moderate to fresh N winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California, and 4-6 ft elsewhere across the open waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2-3 ft, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, other than the possible tropical cyclone formation associated with the area of low pressure near 11N106W, moderate seas will not vary much into the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the immediate area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, possibly increasing to fresh to strong this weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California from near Punta Eugenia southward tonight into Tue. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, except locally fresh SW winds offshore southern Colombia and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell, except mainly 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from offshore Colombia northward. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the week, except moderate to fresh from the Equator to 06N through Tue, then from 04N to 10N from Tue night through Wed morning. Seas will not vary much through tonight, then will build slightly where the moderate to fresh winds are. New long-period southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by mid-week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles south of the coast of Central America during the next few days. Afterward, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or west- northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on a developing area of low pressure near 11N106W, and on a low embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N124W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NE winds prevail N of 12N and W of 120W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 7-9 ft in northerly swell N of 25N. Seas are 7-9 ft in SE swell S of 03N between 105W and 130W. Seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere in mixed swell. For the forecast, other than the possible tropical cyclone formation associated with the area of low pressure near 11N106W, the northerly swell across the northern waters will gradually decay through mid-week. The low pressure area embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N124W is forecast to continue to produce moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft on the NW side before weakening mid-week while not moving much. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days. Meanwhile, southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend from around 05N southward. $$ Lewitsky