000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1008 mb low pressure near 11.5N105W continue to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 100W and 110W. Winds of 20 to 25 kt and seas of 7 to 8 ft are likely currently occurring with this area of low pressure. Additional development is expected, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move west- northwestward today, then meander northwestward to north- northwestward through the end of the week. The system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for the latest on this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1008 mb low pressure near 11.5N105W to 1009 mb low pres near 12N123W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 77W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 112W and 119W, from 11N to 14N between 122W and 126W, and from 08N to 12N between 133W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on a developing area of 1007 mb low pressure near 11N104.5W. Surface ridging prevails across the offshore waters of Mexico. Moderate NW winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California, according to a recent ASCAT pass. Similar winds are occurring to the west of Baja California. Moderate N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have likely diminished this afternoon. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft west of Baja California in NW swell, and 2-4 ft in the Gulf of California. Seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere in primarily southerly swell. For the forecast, the area of low pressure near 11.5N105W is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and it could be a couple hundred nm offshore Colima and Jalisco late this week. Elsewhere, moderate seas will not vary much into the middle of the week. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the immediate area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California from near Punta Eugenia southward today into Tue. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, except locally fresh SW winds offshore southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring offshore of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the offshore waters through most of the week, except moderate to fresh from the Equator to 06N this afternoon through Tue, then from 04N to 10N from Tue night through Wed morning. Seas will not vary much through tonight, then will build slightly where the moderate to fresh winds are. New long-period southerly swell will build seas slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by mid-week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred nm south of the coast of Central America during the second half of this week. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development of the low after it forms, and a tropical depression could develop late this week or over the weekend while the disturbance moves slowly westward to west-northwestward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the section above for details on a developing area of low pressure near 11.5N105W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 7-10 ft seas still prevail north of 21N and west of 125W. A weak 1009 mb low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N123W with moderate to fresh winds in the NW semicircle. Seas are around 8 ft in that area. S winds are moderate to locally fresh south of the monsoon trough. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 7-9 ft in SE swell S of 08N and W of 98W, and 6-7 ft across the remainder of the open waters in mixed swell. For the forecast, other than the potential for tropical cyclone formation with the developing area of low pressure near 11.5N105W, seas north of 22N will slowly subside Tue into Tue night. The low pressure area embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N123W is forecast to continue to produce moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft on the NW side before weakening mid-week. Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open waters through the next several days. Meanwhile, southerly swell of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week from around 05N southward. $$ Hagen