000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012051
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 1 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A tropical wave is along 102W north of 02N, moving west at 5 to 
10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 07N to 15N between 97W and 106W. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for development of this system 
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the middle part of this week while it 
moves west-northwestward to northwestward. The system has a 
medium chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, 
and a high chance in 7 days.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather 
Outlook at hurricanes.gov for the latest on this system.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

See above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1010 mb low pres 
near 13N122W 1010 mb to 11N138W. The ITCZ extends from that 
point to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 05N to 13N and E of 115W, and from 06N to 16N and W of 
123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave with
chance of tropical formation.

A weakening cold front extends across the northern portion of the
Gulf of California and along 26N and W of 115W. Surface ridging 
prevails elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico. Fresh 
to strong S-SW winds prevail in the northern Gulf of California 
near the front. MOderate to fresh N winds prevail in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec currently. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker 
elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft across the open waters.
In the Gulf of California, seas are 4-6 ft in the northern Gulf,
and 1-3 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 ft near the entrance. A 
tropical wave is moving across portions of southern Mexico. For 
more details, see above. 

For the forecast, moderate seas will not vary much into the 
middle of the week. Fresh N winds will pulse in the immediate 
area of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly at night, through the
week. Fresh to strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of 
California will pulse through tonight. Winds will be moderate or 
weaker elsewhere through the early part of the week. Looking 
ahead, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
tropical development of the tropical wave currently along 102W 
during the next several days, and a depression is expected to 
form during the middle part of this week while it moves west- 
northwestward to northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, except
moderate to fresh offshore Nicaragua. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 10N 
as well as offshore Colombia to the Azuero Peninsula, and 4-6 ft
in SE-S swell elsewhere S of 10N. Scattered thunderstorms are
occurring offshore Colombia and Panama.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters through the next several days, except moderate to
fresh from the Equator to 06N Mon night through Tue, then from
03N to 08N from Tue night through Wed morning. Seas will not 
vary much through Mon evening, then will build slightly where the
moderate to fresh winds are. New southerly swell will build seas
slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by mid-week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave with
chance of tropical formation.

High pressure N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh winds from 12N to 22N and W of 132W, along with seas of
7-8 ft in mixed NE and SE swell. A dissipating cold front 
extends from 27N120W to 28N139W. Fresh N-NE winds are noted N of
the front. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas of 8-9 
ft in mainly SE swell covers the waters S of 06N and W of 95W. 
Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell elsewhere.

For the forecast, the moderate to fresh winds and 7-8 ft seas in
the W-central waters will diminish tonight. The weakening cold 
front will dissipate tonight, with a remnant trough continuing 
to push S along with accompanying moderate to fresh N-NE winds, 
reaching from 22N130W to 24N140W early Mon before diminishing. 
Winds of moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of 
the open waters through the next several days. The southerly 
swell will decay slightly through Mon, however 7-8 ft seas will 
linger S of the Equator through the middle of the week. Looking 
ahead, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
tropical development of the tropical wave currently along 102W 
during the next several days, and a depression is expected to 
form during the middle part of this week while it moves west- 
northwestward to northwestward.

$$
ERA