000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232039
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Sep 23 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

New Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is centered near 13.9N 120.4W
at 23/2100 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with 
gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 7-9 ft. Numerous 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the
SE semicircle. The same motion is expected to continue for the 
next several days. Slight intensification is expected during the
next couple of days. The system could become a tropical storm as
soon as this afternoon or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 107W from 03N to 17N, moving W at 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 14N between 101W and 111W.

A tropical wave that was along 120W along with an attendant area
of low pressure has become Tropical Depression Fourteen-E. Refer
to the Special Features section for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 06N87W to Tropical
Depression Fourteen-E to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 89W, 
from 03N to 06N between 99W and 106W, and from 05N to 10N 
between 122W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N 
to 08N between 95W and 98W, and from 05N to 10N between 128W and 
140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting moderate to fresh NW-N winds from near
Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell offshore
Baja California. Fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere, with seas 
of 4-6 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region into the start of next 
week. NW-N winds offshore Baja California will pulse to moderate
to fresh from near Cabo San Lazaro northward tonight, then fresh
to strong Sun through Tue night before back to moderate to fresh
thereafter. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Mon, then fresh to strong Mon night through Thu night. 
Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas will not change 
much through Mon night, then will gradually build to 7-11 ft in 
NW swell offshore Baja California thereafter.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh offshore winds are noted over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with 
seas to 6 ft. Seas are 2-4 ft elsewhere, except 4-6 ft offshore 
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate in the 
Gulf of Panama. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate 
winds prevail. Deep convection persists from the Pacific coast of
Colombia to offshore Panama and SE Costa Rica. Higher winds and 
seas are possible in any deep convection.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Papagayo through early Sun. Elsewhere, winds will be
moderate or weaker through Wed night, with southerly moderate to
fresh winds S of the monsoon trough briefly on Thu. Slight to 
moderate seas will prevail, highest offshore Ecuador to the 
Galapagos Islands, where they may build slightly in S-SW swell by
the middle of next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on new
Tropical Depression Fourteen.

The remnants of Kenneth are analyzed as a 1011 mb low pressure
area near 23N125.5W along a surface trough. No deep convection 
is evident with the remnants. Associated winds are moderate to 
fresh with remnant 7-8 ft seas in mixed swell, mainly on the NW 
side. Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate or weaker. Seas are 
5-7 ft elsewhere W of 105W, and 3-6 ft E of 105W.

For the forecast, Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 14.3N 122.4W Sun morning, move to 14.7N 125.2W Sun 
afternoon, 14.9N 127.7W Mon morning, 14.9N 130.5W Mon afternoon, 
14.6N 133.3W Tue morning, and 14.3N 136.5W Tue afternoon. 
Fourteen-E will weaken to a tropical depression as it moves W of
the area into the Central Pacific basin near 14.0N 142.5W Wed 
afternoon. The remnants of Kenneth will gradually dissipate
through the end of the weekend while associated winds and seas 
diminish and subside. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail 
N of the monsoon trough through the remainder of the weekend 
with moderate or weaker winds.

Looking ahead, a cold front may push just SE of 30N140W for the 
start of next week with strong high pressure building in across 
the waters N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ behind it by the middle
of next week. This will result in moderate to fresh trades N of 
10N and W of 120W. NW swell associated with the front will push 
into the northern waters early next week, building seas to 7-11 
ft N of 10N and W of 115W by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, 
a set of southerly swell will build seas to around 8 ft NE of 
03.4S120W by early next week, with seas of around 8 ft near the
Equator and W of 115W by the middle of next week.

$$
Lewitsky