000 AXPZ20 KNHC 212103 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 17.9N 125.7W at 21/2100 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 13 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted mainly N of the centered from 17N to 23N between 122W and 127W. Kenneth is weakening as it moves into an environment of stronger shear, drier air, and cooler ocean temperatures. This weakening will continue and Kenneth is likely to degenerate into a remnant low Fri, then dissipate fully this weekend. A turn to the north is expected by early Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N101W to 06N120W. It resumes from 11N131W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 15N E of 115W and from 10N to 15N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft. In the northern Gulf of California, moderate winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are ongoing. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere in the Gulf, with seas of 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region into the start of next week. Moderate NW to N winds over waters W of Baja California will increase to fresh starting Sat night as the high pressure strengthens and builds SE into the area. Seas W of Baja California will remain 5 to 7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse tonight and Fri night. Moderate SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle winds prevail. Seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kenneth. Fresh E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are impacting areas from 12N to 17N W of 137W due to a low pressure center W of the area. This low will continue move W away from the area and conditions will improve tonight. Elsewhere, moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are impacting waters from 14N to 28N, W of Tropical Storm Kenneth. Seas of 8-9 ft are found N of 29N between 121W and 129W. Mainly moderate southerly winds are south of 06N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period SE swell. For the remainder of the area, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast aside from Tropical Storm Kenneth, developing low pressure along the monsoon trough located several hundred miles south- southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a broad area of showers and thunderstorms as depicted in the monsoon trough section above. Gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward across the central and western part of the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly north of 20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually decay by Fri. $$ KONARIK