000 AXPZ20 KNHC 201558 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 20 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 15.2N 123.4W at 20/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 13 ft, mainly in the N semicircle. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 120W and 127W. Some slight strengthening is likely today and tonight, before colder water and an unfavorable environmental will lead to weakening starting Thu. The current forecast has Kenneth degenerating into a remnant low by this weekend. A turn to the NW is expected Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Thirteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N95W to 07N114W. It resumes from 11N128W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N E of 110W and from 10N to 14N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle winds prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 5 ft, are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters, gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region over the next several days. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California, with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will likely return Thu night into Fri. Fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate gap winds are noted over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo along with seas of 4-5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Outside of the Gulf of Papagayo, seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will diminish today. Moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo through Fri. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Kenneth. A 1007 mb low pressure center has developed along the monsoon trough near 13N137W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within about 90 nm from the center and fresh NE winds are occurring to the N and E of the center. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are impacting the waters north of the monsoon trough to 20N and west of Tropical Storm Kenneth. Seas of 8-9 ft are found N of 28N between 125W and 132W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 04N along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period SE swell. Gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are north of 25N and west of 120W under a weak pressure pattern. For the remainder of the area, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast aside from Tropical Storm Kenneth, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly north of 20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. NW swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will gradually decay by Thu. South of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate southerly swell persisting through the weekend. $$ KONARIK