724 
AXPZ20 KNHC 190831
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Sep 19 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A tropical wave extends its axis near 117W/118W S of 18N, moving
W at around 10 to 15 kt. Low pressure of 1007 mb (EP95) is along
the tropical wave near 15N117.5W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is sheared to the west of the low level center,
from 12N to 18N between 118W and 123W. Current associated winds 
are reaching near 25 kt, with seas to around 10 ft. Further 
development of the low is expected and a tropical depression is 
likely to form during the next day or so. This system is forecast
to move slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so and 
then turn northward by late Wednesday over the western portion of
the basin. There is a high probability of tropical cyclone 
development with this system over the next 2 days. Please refer 
to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 09N96W to 15N117W to
10N137W. The ITCZ extends from 10N137W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N E 
of 106W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N
between 133W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5-7
ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. 
Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. 
Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along
with seas of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft 
in SE to S swell prevails elsewhere across the Mexican offshore 
waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters 
west of Baja California today before diminishing slightly, with 
seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
will diminish today, then may return Thu night into Fri. Fresh to
locally strong SW winds may develop in the northern Gulf of 
California Wed night through Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds are noted over and downstream of the
Gulf of Papagayo along with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. South of 
the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Outside of
the Gulf of Papagayo, seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds over the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail 
through mid week before diminishing. Moderate to fresh gap winds 
will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo the next few days. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the 
developing area of low pressure (EP95).

Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are impacting
the waters from north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 22N and west 
of 115W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 04N 
along with seas of 5-8 ft in long period SE swell. Light to 
gentle anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are north of 25N and 
west of 120W under a weak pressure pattern. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast aside from EP95 discussed above, high pressure 
will prevail across the northern waters, particularly north of 
20N and west of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle
to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 
ft range. NW swell of around 8 ft will move just south of 30N 
between 120W and 135W by mid-week before decaying. South of 05N, 
moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate southerly 
swell persisting through the weekend.

$$
AL