000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172059
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Sep 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A tropical wave extends its axis near 111W S of 17N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is from 04N-15N between 108W-115W. This system is currently 
elongated, but environmental conditions are expected to allow for
additional development during the next few days. A tropical 
depression is expected to form by the middle of the week while 
the system moves west-northwestward over the central and western 
portions of the basin. There is a medium probability of tropical 
cyclone development with this system over the next 2 days. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N136W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N and E of 136W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 
to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle winds prevail. Seas 
are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell, 
prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters 
west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 
to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through the middle of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are noted over 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle 
winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough,
mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds over the 
waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail 
through early next week. Moderate to fresh gap winds will prevail
in the Gulf of Papagayo, pulsing to strong tonight. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds will prevail. Long-period southerly swell 
will subside across the offshore waters of Central America 
through the weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on the developing tropical
wave near 110W. 

Fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are impacting the waters from 15N 
to 18N and W of 138W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are 
south of 05N. Seas are 5-8 ft in long period SE swell south of 
05N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker 
with seas of 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will start to increase by the
middle of the week in associated to the tropical wave discussed
above. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence
of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected
with seas in the 4-7 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly 
winds will prevail, with moderate southerly swell persisting 
through the weekend.

$$
ERA