000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170830
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Sep 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis near 108W S of 18N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is from 05N-11N between 105W-115W. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become more conducive for further development. A 
tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next 
week while the system moves west- northwestward over the central 
and western portions of the basin. There is a high probability of
tropical cyclone development with this system over the next 7 
days. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N105W to 10N120W to
10N135W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 10N and E of 105W, and from 08N to 13N between
125W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 
to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, gentle winds prevail. Seas 
are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 
Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell, 
prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters 
west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 
to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through the middle of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh gap winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are noted over 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle 
winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough,
mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas are 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate southerly 
winds over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
will prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh gap 
winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds will prevail. Long-period southerly swell will 
subside across the offshore waters of Central America through the
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 9 ft are impacting the waters
from 15N to 19N and W of 137W. These winds and seas are lingering
from Post Tropical Twelve-E. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
are south of 05N. Seas are 5-8 ft in long period SE swell south 
of 05N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker 
with seas of 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will start to increase by the
middle of the week in associated to the tropical wave discussed
above. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence
of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected
with seas in the 4-7 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly 
winds will prevail, with moderate southerly swell persisting 
through the weekend.

$$
AL