000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170230
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Sep 17 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis near 107W S of 18N, moving W at
10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is from 03N-17N between 103W-112W. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this 
system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of 
next week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward over
the central and western portions of the east Pacific during the 
next several days. There is a medium probability of tropical 
cyclone development with this system over the next 7 days. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N134W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N
and E of 103W, from 05N to 11N between 112W and 120W, and from 
08N to 13N between 125W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 4 
to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds 
prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near to the entrance of 
the Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW 
swell, prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters 
west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 
to 7 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period southerly swell is affecting the waters offshore 
Central America and northern South America. Moderate to fresh gap
winds are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo, with light to gentle
winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon 
trough, mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas are 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate southerly 
winds over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
will prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh gap 
winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, light to 
gentle winds will prevail. Long-period southerly swell will 
subside across the offshore waters of Central America through the
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

T.D. Twelve-E has moved W of the area and been downgraded to a
Post-Tropical Cyclone. Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 11 ft 
are impacting the discussion waters east of the system.

Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 05N. Seas are 
5-8 ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 120W. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, winds and seas associated with Post-Tropical
Cyclone Twelve-E will shift W of the area through Sun. 
Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters,
particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence of this
system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with 
seas in the 4-7 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly winds 
will prevail, with moderate southerly swell persisting through 
the weekend.

$$
AL