000 AXPZ20 KNHC 162114 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Sep 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... T.D. Twelve-E: Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 14.2N 139.7W at 16/2100 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 09N to 18N between 134W and 140W. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 30 nm N of the center. Weakening is expected, and the depression is expected to become a remnant low in a day or so. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Twelve-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis along 106W from 03N-16N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-17N between 102W-111W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week. The system is expected to move west-northwestward over the central and western portions of the east Pacific during the next several days. There is a medium probability of tropical cyclone development with this system over the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 11N130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 14N and W of 96W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell, prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Long period southerly swell is affecting the waters offshore Central America and northern South America. N of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds prevail, while gentle to moderate winds are noted S of the trough. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. Long-period southerly swell will subside across the offshore waters of Central America through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on T.D. Twelve-E. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 05N. Seas are 5-8 ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, aside from T.D. Twelve-E, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, T.D. Twelve-E will become a remnant low and move to 13.9N 141.1W Sun morning, 13.5N 142.9W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate southerly swell persisting through the weekend. $$ ERA