525 AXPZ20 KNHC 160843 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... T.D. Twelve-E: Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 14.5N 137.5W at 16/0900 UTC, moving west-southwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is sheared to the east of the system, from 13N to 16N between 132W and 136W. Seas to 12 ft are noted within 30 nm N of the center. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but the depression is expected to dissipate as a remnant low early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Twelve-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been added to the unified surface analysis at 0600 UTC. The axis of the tropical wave is near 104W, from 17N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 100W and 110W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become conducive for gradual development of this system by early next week, while the system moves west-northwestward over the central and western portions of the east Pacific. There is a low probability of tropical cyclone development with this system over the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N107W to 12N132W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N and E of 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell, prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore Central America and northern South America. N of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate southerly winds over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail through early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail. Long-period southerly swell will subside across the offshore waters of Central America through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on T.D. Twelve-E. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 05N. Seas are 5-8 ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, aside from T.D. Twelve-E, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, T.D. Twelve-E will move to 14.3N 138.5W this afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 13.9N 140.2W Sun morning, 13.5N 142.1W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate SE to S swell persisting through the weekend. $$ AL