000 AXPZ20 KNHC 152121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... T.D. Twelve-E: Tropical Depression Twelve-E is centered near 15.1N 136.2W at 15/2100 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-19N between 130W and 136W. Seas to 11 ft are noted within the strongest winds. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but the depression is expected to dissipate as a remnant low within a couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Twelve-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 15N136W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 18N and E of 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW swell, prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region over the next several days. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are light to gentle. South of 04N, moderate southerly winds prevail. Seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will prevail through early next week. Seas to 7 ft in SE swell will diminish in this area tonight. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through the end of the week. Long-period southerly swell will subside across the offshore waters of Central America through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on T.D. Twelve-E. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 05N. Seas are 5-8 ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 120W. Elsewhere excluding the area near T.D. Twelve-E, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, T.D. Twelve-E will move to 15.0N 137.2W Sat morning, 14.8N 138.6W Sat afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 14.7N 140.1W Sun morning, 14.5N 141.9W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Elsewhere, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected with seas in the 4-7 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate SE to S swell persisting through Sat. $$ ERA