000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150831
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest EP94: A broad area of low pressure located well to the 
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula continues to produce showers and thunderstorms with 
some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while it 
moves generally west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the 
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin. This system has a 
high chance for tropical cyclone development within the next 48 
hours.

Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N120W to 14N135W to 
11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted E of 80W, from 04N to 14N between 87W and 111W, and from
06N to 17N between 130W and 140W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas
of 5 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds 
prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near to the entrance of 
the Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-6 ft in S to SW 
swell, prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of 
the weather pattern across the region over the next several days.
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail over the waters 
west of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 
to 7 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are 
light to gentle. South of 04N, moderate southerly winds 
prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands and 5-7 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate southerly winds over the waters between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands will diminish today. Seas of 8
ft in long period S swell over these waters will gradually 
subsiding today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail 
through the end of the week. Long- period southerly swell will 
subside across the offshore waters of Central America through the
weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Invest EP94.

Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of 05N. Seas are 
6-8 ft in long period SE swell south of 05N and east of 100W. 
Elsewhere excluding the area near EP94, winds are moderate or 
weaker with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern
waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. Under the influence
of this system, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected
with seas in the 4-6 ft range. South of 05N, moderate southerly 
winds will prevail, with moderate SE to S swell persisting 
through Sat.

$$
AL