000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141544
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Sep 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Invest EP94: A tropical wave is along 132W, moving W at 10 kt. A
1008 mb broad area of low pressure is along the wave near 11N, 
producing scattered moderate convection from 05N to 18N between 
127W and 138W. The disturbance is producing fresh to strong winds
currently, and seas in the 8 to 9 ft range. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for further development of this 
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or two while it moves west- northwestward to 
northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the western portion of the 
eastern Pacific basin. This system has a high chance for tropical
development within the next 48 hours.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N118W. The ITCZ 
continues from 11N118W to 11N130W, then continues west of Invest
EP94 from 10N135W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection 
mentioned above in the Special Features section above, scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 15N and E of 110W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to fresh NW to NNW winds and seas of 5-7 ft. 
In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds prevail. 
Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft near to the entrance of the Gulf. 
Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas of 6-7 
ft. Gentle W to NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft in S to SW swell 
prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted on satellite imagery over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the region over the next several days. 
Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are forecast over the waters west
of Baja California through early next week, with seas of 6 to 7 
ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are 
light to gentle, except for gentle to moderate E winds in the 
Papagayo region, and moderate northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Panama. South of 04N, ASCAT data shows mainly moderate southerly
winds. Seas are 7-9 ft in between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Islands, 6-8 ft offshore Colombia and Panama, and 5-7 ft 
elsewhere. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring 
within 120 nm of the coast of Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, 
southern Costa Rica and Colombia

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail 
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
today before diminishing tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long 
period S swell will continue over these waters through tonight 
before gradually subsiding Fri and Fri night. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds will prevail through Fri night. Long-period 
southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore 
waters of Central America through tonight. Scattered 
thunderstorms are expected offshore Colombia and Panama through 
tonight.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Invest EP94.

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of 06N between 95W and
105W. Seas are 7-9 ft in long period S swell south of 05N and 
east of 115W. Elsewhere excluding the area near EP94, winds are 
moderate or weaker with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across most of the 
northern forecast region, particularly N of 20N and W of 110W. 
Under the influence of this system, gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic flow is expected with seas generally in the 4-6 ft 
range. Over the southern portion of the area south of 05N,
moderate southerly winds will prevail, with moderate SE to S 
swell persisting through Sat.

$$
ERA