000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140327
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Sep 14 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0310 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific (EP94): A tropical wave is along 130/131W,
moving W at 5-10 kt. A 1008 mb broad area of low pressure is 
along the wave near 10N, producing scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection from 07N to 14N between 129W and 135W. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward
at 10 to 15 kt. By the weekend, upper-level winds are forecast 
to become less favorable for additional development while the 
system moves slowly westward. There is a high chance of tropical 
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Currently, the 
disturbance likely has fresh to strong winds and seas in the 8 to
10 ft range. By Thu night, winds in the northern semicircle are 
forecast to increase to strong to near-gale force, with seas 
increasing to 10 to 12 ft. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 09N79W to
11N110W to 11N120W. The ITCZ continues from 11N120W to 12N128W,
then continues west of EP94 from 09N134W to 06N140W. Aside from 
the convection mentioned above in the Special Features section, 
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N 
to 08N between 77W and 79.5W, from 03N to 13N between 89W and 
102W, from 06N to 11.5N between 103W and 115W, and from 08N to 
13N between 121W and 126W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
producing moderate to locally fresh NW to NNW winds and seas of 
5-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle winds 
prevail, except N of 30N where moderate southerly winds are 
likely occurring. Seas are 1-3 ft, except 3-4 ft near to the 
entrance of the Gulf. Fresh N winds are in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft. Gentle westerly winds and seas of 
5-6 ft in S to SW swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the region over the next several days. Mainly 
moderate to fresh NW to N winds are forecast over the waters 
west of Baja California through the upcoming weekend, with seas
of 6 to 7 ft.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are 
light to gentle, except for gentle to moderate E winds in the 
Papagayo region, and gentle to moderate northerly winds in the 
Gulf of Panama. South of 04N, moderate to locally fresh 
southerly winds prevail. Seas are 8-9 ft in between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands, 6-8 ft offshore Colombia and Panama, and 
5-7 ft elsewhere. Scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring
near the coast of Colombia and El Salvador.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail 
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
Thu before diminishing late in the week. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in 
long period S to SW swell will continue over these waters through
Thu night before gradually subsiding Fri and Fri night. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through Fri night. 
Long-period southerly swell will continue to propagate across 
the offshore waters of Central America through tonight before 
gradually subsiding Thu and Thu night. Scattered thunderstorms 
are expected offshore Colombia and Panama through Thu night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
EP94, which has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
within 48 hours.

A surface trough is along 140W from 18N to 24N. An area of fresh
NE winds remains between the northern end of the trough axis and
a ridge to the N covering roughly the waters from 22N to 26N W 
of 137W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. Moderate to 
locally fresh SE to S winds are south of 05N between 95W and 
115W, where seas are 7-9 ft in long period S swell. S swell is 
reaching 8 ft as far north as 06N east of 120W. Elsewhere
excluding the area near EP94, winds are moderate or weaker with 
seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough near 140W will continue
drifting westward, and the fresh winds over the area will
diminish Thu. As the trough moves W of the area, high pressure 
will build across most of the northern forecast region, 
particularly N of 20N and W of 110W. Under the influence of this 
system, mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is expected 
with seas generally in the 4-6 ft range. Over the southern
portion of the area south of 05N, winds will be moderate 
southerly, with moderate SE to S swell persisting through Sat.

$$
Hagen