000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122113
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Sep 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave  
located well southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula has increased today, but remains disorganized. Its axis
is along 127W from 04N to 15N. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 115W and 132W.
Some additional development of this system is expected during the
next few days as the system moves generally northwestward, and a
tropical depression could form later this week. The system is 
then forecast to turn westward over the weekend, at which time 
further development is not anticipated. This system has a medium 
chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at  
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N75W to
08N90W to 10N100W. The ITCZ continues from 10N100W to 12N110W to
11N124W to 04N140W. Aside from the convection associated with 
tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N 
E of 86W to the coast of Colombia. Similar convective activity 
is observed from 10N to 14N between 100W and 110W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California,
producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California
Norte with seas of 4-6 ft, and light to gentle NW winds offshore
Baja California Sur with seas in the 3-5 ft range. In the Gulf 
of California, gentle to moderate S winds prevail along with 1-3 
ft seas, except 3 to 4 ft N of 30N and near to the entrance of
the Gulf. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, scatterometer data confirmed
the presence of fresh N gap winds extending downwind to about 
14N, with moderate seas. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere
with 4-6 ft seas in long-period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh N gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec through Wed morning. Mainly gentle to moderate NW to
N winds are forecast over the waters west of Baja California the
remainder of the week, with the exception of moderate to fresh 
winds, mainly at night, between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia.
Seas are expected to build to 6 or 7 ft with these winds. In the
Gulf of California, expect mainly gentle southerly winds and
slight seas most of the forecast period. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. N of 04N, winds are 
light to gentle. South of 04N, gentle to moderate southerly 
winds prevail. Seas are 6-8 ft in between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands based on altimeter data. Seas are 4-6 ft 
offshore Central America and Colombia, except up to 7 ft off 
southern Colombia, in long period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds will continue
over the waters in between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands 
with seas of 6-8 ft in long period S to SW swell likely through 
Thu or Thu night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail 
through Fri night, except for moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf 
of Papagayo tonight. Long-period southerly swell, with seas of 
5-7 ft, will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast 
waters through Thu before subsiding Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Jova has dissipated into an open trough. The 
trough extends along 130W/131W from 21N to 28N. An area of fresh
to strong NE winds remains between the northern end of the trough
axis and a ridge to the N. Seas are 8 to 9 ft within these winds. 
Fresh NE winds and seas 7 to 8 ft are occurring to the west of 
the aforementioned tropical wave along 126W. Fresh SE to S winds
are south of 06N between 120W and 126W, where seas are 8-9 ft in
long period S swell. S swell of 8-9 ft is occurring east of 120W
and south of 06N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with 
seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the surface trough near 130W/131W will drift 
west-southwestward through tonight. An area of fresh to strong 
winds between the trough and a high pressure to the N is forecast
to persist through early Wed morning. Elsewhere north of the 
ITCZ and E of 125W, mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds will 
prevail. To the south of 06N and east of 120W, seas of 8 to 9 ft
in long-period southerly swell will continue through tonight 
before gradually subsiding Wed.

$$
GR