000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120324
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Sep 12 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 122W from 04N to 14N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 120W and 129W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N97W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N97W to 09N113W to 07N120W, then continues W of
the tropical wave from 05N124W to 04N129W to 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to 10N between 77W and
116W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge is building across the offshore forecast waters of Baja
California, bringing moderate NW to NNW winds offshore Baja
California Norte and gentle NW winds offshore Baja California
Sur. Seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California Norte and 4-6 ft off
Baja California Sur. In the Gulf of California, gentle to
moderate S winds prevail along with 1-3 ft seas. In the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N gap winds are occurring along with
seas to 6 ft. Gentle and variable winds prevail elsewhere with
4-6 ft seas in long-period S to SW swell.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N gap winds will 
prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight, with moderate
to locally fresh N winds continuing at times through Wed morning.
Mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds are forecast over the 
waters west of Baja California through Tue, increasing to
moderate to fresh from Tue night through the end of the week.
Seas will build to 7 ft with these winds. In the Gulf of 
California, expect gentle to moderate southerly winds through 
Thu. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Long period S to SW swell is affecting the waters offshore
Central America and northern South America. Moderate NE winds 
prevail in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere N of 04N, winds are 
light and variable. South of 04N, gentle to moderate southerly 
winds prevail, including the waters between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands where seas are in the 6-9 ft range, according 
to a recent satellite altimeter pass. Gentle W winds are noted 
offshore Colombia, where seas are 4-6 ft according to a recent 
satellite altimeter pass. Elsewhere, seas are 4-6 ft, except 2-4 
ft in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds will continue
over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through
Tue, increasing to moderate to fresh Tue night through Thu, with
seas of 7-9 ft in long period S to SW swell tonight through Thu 
night. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail through Fri 
night, except for moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo 
pulsing through Tue night. Long-period southerly swell, with 
seas of 6-7 ft, will continue to propagate across the Central 
America and Colombia offshore forecast waters through Thu before 
subsiding Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Jova is still producing fresh to strong winds
in the northern semicircle, with seas of 8-10 ft based on a 
recent altimeter pass. The low is located near 24N129.5W with a 
central pressure of 1011 mb and is drifting to the W. Moderate 
to locally fresh NE winds and seas near 8 ft are observed ahead 
of the aforementioned tropical wave with axis along 122W.
Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of 05N between 100W and
120W, where seas are 8-10 ft in S swell. Elsewhere, winds are 
moderate or weaker, with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Jova will drift west-
southwestward through Tue morning before opening up into a trough
Tue afternoon or evening. An area of fresh to strong winds 
between the remnants of Jova and a high pressure to the N is 
forecast to persist through early Wed morning. Elsewhere north of
the ITCZ and E of 125W, mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds 
will prevail. To the south of 09N and east of 125W, seas of 8 to
10 ft in long-period southerly swell will continue through Tue
before gradually subsiding Tue night through Wed.

An area of low pressure could form by Thu in the vicinity of
13N132W. Some gradual development of this system is possible 
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward. There is
a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7
days. Read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for the east
Pacific at hurricanes.gov for more details.

$$
Hagen