000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110328
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Sep 11 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 117W from 02N to 14N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are
within 120 nm of the wave axis from 06N to 12N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N98W to 07N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N105W to 06N115W, then continues from
04N119.5W to 03N122W to 03N127W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 02N to 08N between 77W and 79W, and from 05N to 08N
between 88.5W and 96.5W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh NW to NNW winds are ongoing over the waters to
the west of Baja California, north of Cabo San Lazaro. South of
Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, winds are gentle to moderate.
In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong N winds with seas of
6 to 7 ft are occurring. In the Gulf of California, gentle to
moderate S winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are prevalent, except for
seas to 4 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. Gentle winds and seas
near 5 ft prevail elsewhere offshore of Mexico.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds will prevail in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon night. Moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds will prevail over the Pacific waters west of Baja
California N of Cabo San Lazaro through early Mon before
diminishing slightly midday Mon through early Tue. Moderate to
fresh NW to N winds will return to this area Tue night through
Thu night, extending to Cabo San Lucas Thu night into Fri night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate south winds are ongoing across the Ecuador and
Galapagos Islands offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 6 ft 
in south swell. S to SW swell up to 7 ft is occurring to the
south of the Galapagos Islands. Moderate E winds continue in the
Papagayo region, with seas near 5 ft. Light to gentle variable 
winds and slight seas are ongoing elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds will continue
over the waters west of Ecuador through Tue, increasing to
moderate to fresh for Tue night through Thu. Elsewhere, light to
gentle variable winds will prevail through Fri night, except for
moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing through 
Tue. Increasing long-period southerly swell will affect the
waters in between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Mon through
mid-week before subsiding toward the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The remnant low of Jova is located near 25N128W with a central
pressure of 1005 mb and maximum sustained winds of 30 kt in the
northern semicircle. The low is moving to the WNW at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered showers are within a couple hundred nm east of the low.
The peak seas are 12 ft. Winds over 20 kt and seas over 9 ft in
association with the low are affecting the area from 24N to 28N
between 125.5W and 131W.

Winds are moderate to fresh near a tropical wave along 118W.
South of 04N between 95W and 120W, moderate to fresh SE to SSE
winds prevail along with seas of 8 to 9 ft in S swell. Elsewhere,
winds are moderate or weaker, with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Jova will move to near
25N130W Mon afternoon, 23N133W Tue afternoon, and dissipate Wed 
afternoon. Over the northern waters to the east of Jova, moderate
to fresh N to NE winds will remain in place through early Wed
before diminishing, as surface ridging builds in the wake of 
Jova. Elsewhere north of the ITCZ, mainly gentle to moderate NE 
to E winds will prevail. To the south of 08N and east of 120W,
long-period southerly swell will build seas to 8 to 10 ft Mon 
through Tue, subsiding Tue night.

$$
Hagen