236 AXPZ20 KNHC 102106 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova is centered near 24.8N 127.8W at 10/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within the area of strongest winds. Isolated showers are ongoing from 22N to 29N between 122W and 128W. Jova is forecast to have a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest over the next couple of days. Jova has become a remnant low and will continue to gradually spin down. Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 116W from 01N to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 13N between 108W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N110W to 06N115W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N130W to 09N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 10N E of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 16N between 98W and 108W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds are ongoing along the Baja California offshore waters with seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed S and W swell. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are observed with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas of 4 to 5 ft in southerly swell, except to 2 ft along the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail along the Baja California offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu, extending to Cabo San Lucas Thu night into Fri night. A low pressure will develop over SW Arizona early on Monday with a surface trough extending into the Gulf of California. The trough will prevail along the gulf through Tue night, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas. Fresh to strong north gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Mon, then fresh N to NE winds will prevail through Tue. Light to gentle variable winds are forecast elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south winds are ongoing across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters along with seas to 5 ft in south swell. Moderate E winds continue in the Papagayo region, with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and slight seas are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue through Fri, becoming locally fresh by mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail through Fri night, except for moderate NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing through Tue. Long-period southerly swell affecting the waters W of 99W will spread eastward and enter the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters Mon morning and continue to affect this area through Fri before subsiding. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on recently downgraded Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova. A weak surface ridge to the west and east of Jova is maintaining gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the E Pacific subtropical waters E of 122W and W of 137W. A tropical wave with axis near 116W is supporting an area of NE moderate NE winds from 04N to 16N between 112W and 126W with seas to 6 ft. In the far western tropical waters, an area of scattered showers and tstms is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas to 7 ft. Otherwise, long-period southerly swell is producing seas of 7 to 8 ft south of 10N and W of 99W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are ongoing in this large swell region. For the forecast, Jova will become a remnant low and move to 25.0N 128.4W Mon morning, 24.8N 129.6W Mon afternoon, 24.2N 131.0W Tue morning, 23.3N 133.0W Tue afternoon, 22.3N 135.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, surface ridging will build in the wake of Jova and will maintain mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the E Pacific tropical waters and moderate seas through Fri night. $$ Ramos