000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 24.2N 126.9W at 10/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are about 17 ft within the area of strongest winds. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 26N between 124W and 127W. Jova is expected to have a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest over the next couple of days. Further weakening is forecast, and Jova is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 01N to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 17N between 105W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N110W to 05N115W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N130W to 09N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 15N E of 107W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N W of 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Jova. Moderate N to NW winds are ongoing along the Baja California offshore waters with seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed S and W swell. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate N to NE winds are observed with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere with seas of 4 to 5 ft in southerly swell, except to 2 ft along the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail along the Baja California offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. A low pressure will develop over SW Arizona early on Monday with a surface trough extending into the Gulf of California. The trough will prevail along the gulf through Tue, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds and slight seas. Fresh to strong north gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Mon, then fresh N to NE winds will prevail through Tue. Light to gentle variable winds are forecast elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate south winds are ongoing across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters along with seas to 5 ft in south swell. Moderate E winds continue in the Papagayo region, with seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas in the 3 to 5 ft range are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week, becoming fresh by mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through early next week. Long-period southerly swell will affect the offshore waters late Mon through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on T.S. Jova. Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-6 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and T.S. Jova is resulting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds N of 20N and west of 130W. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas of 4-6 ft in NE swell, except in southeast swell S of 10N. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jova will move to 24.5N 127.4W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 24.8N 128.1W Mon morning, 24.6N 129.1W Mon afternoon, 24.1N 130.4W Tue morning, 23.2N 132.3W Tue afternoon, and 22.3N 134.5W Wed morning. Jova will dissipate early Thu. Elsewhere, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north- central sections of the area, with northeast to east moderate to fresh trades prevailing. $$ Ramos