000 AXPZ20 KNHC 090854 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jova is centered near 21.5N 124.6W at 09/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are about 29 ft within the area of strongest winds, and seas in excess of 12 ft extend out as far as 270 nm in the N semicircle and 180 nm S semicircle. Satellite imagery depicts a continuing weakening tropical cyclone as it encounters a more stable environment. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 24N between 122W and 128W. Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occurring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Jova is forecast to continue slowing down further and turn westward by late Sunday, then become a remnant low early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 180 nm west of the wave from 10N to 15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 10N108W, then resumes near 13N125W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 90W to 98W, and W of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for details on T.S. Jova. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across most of the area, except for fresh winds from the tip of the Baja California Peninsula to Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 8-10 ft related to T.S. Jova extend from 16N to 27N and W of 113W. For the remaining waters, seas are 4-7 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California N of 25N. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by T.S. Jova, fresh northwest winds along and just offshore the coast between Southern Baja California and Cabo Corrientes will expand in coverage and shift westward through the weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. In its wake, high pressure ridging will build southward to near 28N. Nocturnal pulses of fresh north gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. The exception is in the Papagayo region, where moderate to fresh gap winds are pulsing. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week, becoming fresh by mid-week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through early next week. Long-period southerly swell will continue through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on T.S. Jova. Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-6 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and T.S. Jova is resulting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds N of 10N and west of 130W. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail along with seas of 4-6 ft in northerly swell, except in southeast swell S of 10N. For the forecast, T.S. Jova will move to 22.3N 125.8W this afternoon, 23.4N 126.8W Sun morning, 24.3N 127.5W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 24.6N 128.5W Mon morning, become a remnant low and move to 24.3N 129.2W Mon afternoon, and 23.9N 130.3W Tue morning. Jova will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.7N 133.9W by early Wed. Elsewhere, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east moderate to fresh trades prevailing. $$ ERA