820 AXPZ20 KNHC 081556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 08 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Jova is centered near 19.8N 121.2W, or 655 nm west- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 08/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 33 ft within the area of strongest winds, and seas in excess of 12 ft extend out as far as 540 nm from the center in the SE quadrant. Latest satellite imagery depicts Jova as a weakening tropical cyclone now that it is moving over cooler waters. Dry air intrusion is creating breaks in the banding features as they are appearing rather fractured in the satellite imagery. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in an outer band feature within 30 nm of a line from 20N119W to 21N121W and to 21N122W. Scattered moderate convection is in another outer band within 30 nm of a line from 18N124W to 18N121W to 20N120W. An area of scattered moderate convection is present to the southeast of Jova from 13N to 20N between 113W-118W. Jova is forecast to maintain is present with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected over the next few days. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 104W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to 15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from coast of northwest coast of Colombia to 09N84W to 08N95W to 07N109W. It resumes south- southwest of Jova near 13N122W to 08N131W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 88W-92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 85W-89W. Numerous to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm southeast and south of the trough between 122W-130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 130W-139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Jova located about 655 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Strong winds in association to Jova are ongoing W of 112W and S of 22N. Moderate to fresh north winds are north of 22N and west of Baja California. Seas in the area of strong winds are 12-18 ft, with 8-11 ft seas west of 108W and south of 25N. For the remaining waters, seas are 4-7 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California N of 25N. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Hurricane Jova, fresh northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes today. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. In its wake, high pressure ridging will build southward to near 28N. Nocturnal pulses of fresh north gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period southerly swell. Gentle to moderate south winds are south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. The only exception is in the Papagayo region, where moderate to fresh gap winds are pulsing. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through early next week. Long-period southerly swell will continue through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Hurricane Jova. Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-7 ft is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 20N and west of 130W. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail along with seas of 4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except primarily in southeast swell south of 10N and west of 125W. For the forecast, Hurricane Jova will continue to weaken as it moves to near 20.7N 123.1W this evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, then weaken further to a tropical storm as it moves to near 22.0N 125.1W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 23.3N 126.6W Sat evening, to near 24.3N 127.5W Sun morning with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 k, to near 25.1N 128.2W Sun evening, and weaken to a remnant low near 25.3N 129.3W Mon morning. Jova will change little in intensity as it moves to near 4.8N 131.3W by early on Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ Aguirre