000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080856
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Sep 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Jova is centered near 19.1N 119.7W at 08/0900 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with
gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 45 ft within the area of
strongest winds, and seas in excess of 12 ft extend out as far 
as 420 nm from the center in the E semicircle. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is noted from 15N-24N between 112W-125W. 
Continued weakening is forecast during the next several days.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 103W from 02N to 16N, moving 
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the 
wave's axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N101W, then it
resumes southwest of Hurricane Jova near 13N121W to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 300 
nm south of the trough and E of 95W, and between 118W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Jova, located about 560 nm WSW of the southern tip of 
Baja California.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast 
of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Strong
winds in association to Jova are ongoing W of 112W and S of 22N.
Moderate to fresh north winds are N of 22N to the W of Baja 
California. Seas in the area of strong winds are 12-18 ft, with 
8-11 ft seas west of 108W and south of 25N. For the remaining 
waters, seas are 4-7 ft, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of 
California N of 25N.

For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Hurricane Jova, 
fresh northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore 
the coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes today. These 
winds will then expand in coverage and shift westward through the
weekend as Jova pulls farther away from these waters. In its 
wake, high pressure ridging will build southward to near 28N. 
Nocturnal pulses of fresh north gap winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region will continue through early next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period 
southerly swell. Gentle to moderate south winds are south of the
monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. The 
only exception is in the Papagayo region, where moderate to fresh
gap winds are pulsing.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate south winds over the waters
west of Ecuador will continue into early next week. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except for moderate
to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly through early
next week. Long-period southerly swell will continue through the
period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for the latest information
on Hurricane Jova. 

Elsewhere, long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-7 ft 
is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with 
moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered 
north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh northeast to east 
winds from 10N to 20N and west of 130W. Seas with these winds 
are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail along with seas of 
4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except primarily in southeast
swell south of 10N and west of 125W.

For the forecast, Hurricane Jova will move to 20.0N 121.7W this 
afternoon, 21.1N 123.9W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm 
near 22.5N 125.7W Sat afternoon, 23.7N 127.0W Sun morning, 24.6N 
127.9W Sun afternoon, and 25.0N 128.7W Mon morning. Jova will 
weaken to a remnant low over 25.0N 130.3W by early Tue. Elsewhere,
high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient 
over the western and north-central sections of the area, with 
northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. 

$$
ERA