000
AXPZ20 KNHC 072158
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Sep 7 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Jova is centered near 17.7N 117.3W, or about 520
nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 07/2100 
UTC, moving west-northwest at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 941 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with 
gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are near 45 ft, extending out as far 
as 4200 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. Latest satellite 
imagery shows that eye has become cloud-filled during much of
the day as dry wraps into the southern and eastern side of the
system. The satellite shows numerous strong convection within 
30 nm NE and 90 nm SW semicircles of the center. Numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm
of the center in the SE quadrant and within 240 nm of the center
in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is located within 120 nm of the center in the 
N semicircle, also from 13N to 16N between 113W-117W, from 13 to
15N between 117W-119W and in an outer band that extends 
within 30 nm of a line from 15N110W to 19N112W. Jova is forecast
to maintain its present motion for the next few days. Weakening 
is forecast to begin later tonight and continue through the 
weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Jova
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 101W from 02N to 16N. It is 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to 
14N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of 
the wave from 12N to 14N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
northern Costa Rica and to 10N85W to 10N93W to 12N103W. It 
resumes to the southwest of Hurricane Jova at 10N119W to 08N131W
and to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate convection is within
180 nm south of the trough between 119W-135W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 91W-94W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Jova that is located about 520 nm southwest of 
the southern tip of Baja California.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds continue to the southeast 
of the influence of Jova and in the Gulf of California. Strong
winds in association with Hurricane Jova are ongoing W of 109W
and S of 20N. Moderate to to locally fresh north winds are N of
20N to the W of Baja California. Seas in the area of strong 
winds are 12-18 ft, with 8-11 ft seas W of 104W and south of
22N. For the remaining waters, seas are 4-6 ft, except 1- 3 ft 
in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Major Hurricane 
Jova, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast today 
as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. Fresh 
northwest winds are also expected along and just offshore the 
coast between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes on Fri and Fri 
night. These winds will then expand in coverage and shift 
westward through the weekend as Jova pulls farther away from 
these waters. In its wake, high pressure ridging will build 
southward to near 28N. Pulses of fresh north gap winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region will commence tonight.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Seas of 4-6 ft dominate the basin primarily due to long-period 
southerly swell. Gentle to locally moderate south winds are 
south of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to 
the north. The only exception is in the Papagayo region, where
moderate to locally fresh gap winds are pulsing.

For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate south winds over the
waters west of Ecuador will continue into early next week.
Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except
locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing
nightly into Sun. Long-period south to southwest swell will 
continue through the period. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for the latest information
on Major Hurricane Jova. Jova is expected to impact the waters
west of Clarion Island into Fri night, then continue track 
westward away from the island afterward.

Elsewhere, long-period southwest swell producing seas of 5-7 ft 
is present south of the Equator and east of 120W, along with 
moderate SE winds. The gradient between high pressure centered 
north of the area and lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
monsoon trough is producing moderate to locally fresh northeast 
to east winds from 10N to 20N and west of 120W. Seas with these 
winds are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds are present 
along with seas of 4-6 ft in north to northeast swell, except 
primarily in southeast swell south of about 07N and west of about
118W.

For the forecast, powerful and Major Hurricane Jova will move to
near 17.7N 117.3W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 
15 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, 
and the minimum central pressure is 941 mb. Jova will move to 
near 18.6N 119.4W late tonight with maximum sustained 110 kt
gust 135 kt late tonight, to near 19.8N 122.0W Fri afternoon, 
with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, to near 21.0N 
124.4W late Fri night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 
100 kt, then weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 126.4W Sat 
afternoon. Jova will weaken to a remnant low near 25.0N 131.1W by
Mon afternoon.

Large long-period swells generated by Jova are likely to 
increase the sea state well outside from where it tracks. 
Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the 
gradient over the western and north-central sections of the area,
with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. 

$$
Aguirre