000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050301 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 5 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 12.7N 105.6W at 05/0300 UTC, or about 705 nm S of the southern tip of Baja California, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 101W and 109W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are ongoing in the general area of the convection. The depression is forecast to move generally WNW this week, remaining well S and W of mainland Mexico. Gradual intensification is anticipated, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Eleven-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending southward along 91W from eastern Guatemala southward to near 03N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave to 85W and from 03N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from western Colombia to across northern Panama to southern Costa Rica to 11N90W to Tropical Depression Eleven-E and to 11N115W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to 08N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 102W-107W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 06N between 90W-95W, from 03N to 09N between 81W- 85W, and from 03N to 08N between 110W-119W. Similar activity is north of the ITCZ from 09N to 14N between 128W-132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Eleven-E that is well south of Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail S of 20N as well as in the Gulf of California. For offshore waters N of 20N, moderate to locally fresh NW winds are ongoing, except in the Gulf of California, where mainly gentle winds are present. Seas of 5-7 ft dominate the basin, except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Tropical Depression Eleven-E, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California tonight and Tue night as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the basin, in mainly long period southerly swell. Gentle S winds are present S of the monsoon trough, with light and variable winds to the north. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue through Wed night. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing nightly Wed through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on Tropical Depression Eleven-E. This system is expected to impact the waters near Clarion Island late the week. Long-period southwest swell producing seas of 7-8 ft is present S of the Equator and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. Elsewhere, high pressure well N of the area is causing an increased pressure gradient N of the monsoon trough, creating a band of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds between 10N and 20N. For the remainder of the waters, gentle breezes prevail. Seas N of the Equator are 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to impact a good part of the central forecast waters as it intensifies, with large swells raising the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north- central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh speeds. $$ KONARIK