000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E is centered near 12.5N 104.2W at 04/2100 UTC, or about 705 nm south of the southern tip of Baja California. It is moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that deep convection of numerous moderate to isolated strong type intensity has been persistent in a wide band that extends from well north-northeast of the center and wraps around the center from the southwest. The band covers the area roughly from 12N to 17N between 101W-108W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 101W-108W. Tropical Depression Eleven-E is forecast to have a generally west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. It is forecast to stay well south and west of Mexico. A relatively slow rate of intensification is expected for the next day or so, followed by rapid strengthening beginning by the middle of the week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Eleven-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and the Public Advisory, at www.hurricanes.gov or more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis extending southward along 89W from eastern Guatemala and the central section of El Salvador southward to near 03N. It is moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave to 85W and from 03N to 09N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from western Colombia to across northern Panama to southern Costa Rica to 11N90W to Tropical Depression Eleven-E and to 11N115W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to 08N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 102w-107W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 06N between 90W-95W, from 03N to 09N between 81W-85W, and from 03N to 08N between 110W-119W. Similar activity is north of the ITCZ from 09N to 14N between 128W-132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on recently formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E that is well south of Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail S of 20N as well as in the Gulf of California. For offshore waters N of 20N, moderate NW winds are ongoing. Seas of 5-7 ft dominate the basin, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by Tropical Depression Eleven-E, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Long-period southerly swell producing seas of 5-7 ft persists east of 90W reaching to the southern part of the Gulf of Panama as indicated in an altimeter data pass over that part of the area. seas of 4-6 ft are present. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are over the region. For the forecast, moderate southeast to south winds over the waters west of Ecuador will continue through Wed night. Long- period south to southwest swell will continue through the period. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing Wed night, Thu night and on Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for the latest information on recently formed Tropical Depression Eleven-E. This system is expected to impact the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands late the week. Long-period southwest swell producing seas of 7-8 ft is present mainly south of 01N and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle breezes persist with 5-7 ft combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eleven-E is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.8N 105.3W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 13.3N 106.7W Tue afternoon, 13.9N 108.2W Wed morning, 14.6N 110.2W Wed afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 112.5W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, and continue to strengthen as it reaches near 16.5N 114.8W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, to near 19.0N 119.5W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt and begin to weaken as it reaches near 21.5N 124.5W by early Sat afternoon. The tropical cyclone is expected to impact a good part of the central forecast waters as it intensifies, with large swells raising the sea state well outside from where it tracks. Otherwise, high pressure will build to its north increasing the gradient over the western and north- central sections of the area, with northeast to east trade at mainly fresh to locally strong speeds. $$ Aguirre