124 AXPZ20 KNHC 040834 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure centered W of the area near 12N102W, in association with a tropical wave, is showing signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 99W and 104W. Some fresh E winds are located N of the center of the low, and seas in the area average 6 to 8 ft. A tropical depression is expected to form in the next few days while the low moves W to WNW at around 10 kt, passing well S of mainland Mexico. Near gale- force winds and very rough seas are likely in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands Wed through Thu night, in association with this system. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours, and a high chance within in the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. 1009 mb low pressure centered along the wave axis near 12N102W has potential for tropical development and is described in detail, along with associated convection, in the Special Features section above. A tropical wave extends S from Central America to 02N along 84W, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed N of 04N between 80W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to the 1009 mb low pressure near 12N102W to 09N132W. The ITCZ extends from 09N134W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 11N between 92W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on an area of low pressure that is expected to develop into a tropical depression by the middle of this week well offshore southwest Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail S of 20N as well as in the Gulf of California. For offshore waters N of 20N, moderate NW winds are ongoing. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the basin, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by the aforementioned low pressure, expect fresh winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California through tonight as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Longer period southerly swell of 5 to 7 ft is still present east of 90W, reaching as far as the coast of western Panama. Elsewhere, seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted across the region. For the forecast, moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of 06N today, along with long period S to SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing Wed night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on low pressure offshore of southern Mexico that is expected to become a tropical depression by the middle of the week and impact waters near the Revillagigedo Islands late the week. Long period SW swell of 7 to 8 ft is present mainly south of 01N and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle breezes persist with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, aside from impacts from the expected tropical development east of 125W, long period SW swell will continue to dominate. Farther west, building high pressure farther north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W starting today. $$ KONARIK