000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040220 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 4 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure centered W of the area near 12N101W, in association with a tropical wave, is showing signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 98W and 103W. Some fresh E winds are located N of the center of the low, and seas in the area average 6 to 8 ft. A tropical depression is expected to form in the next few days while the low moves W to WNW at around 10 kt, passing well S of mainland Mexico. Near gale- force winds and very rough seas are likely in the vicinity of the Revillagigedo Islands Wed night through Thu night, in association with this system. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours, and a high chance within in the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 101W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. 1009 mb low pressure centered along the wave axis near 12N101W has potential for tropical development and is described in detail, along with associated convection, in the Special Features section above. A tropical wave mainly over Central America is beginning to emerge into the eastern Pacific along 83W. Associated convection remains over Central America and adjacent Caribbean waters. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to the 1009 mb low pressure near 12N101W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N135W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 11N between 94W and 109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on an area of low pressure that is likely to develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week well offshore southwest Mexico. Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail S of 23N. To the north, moderate NW winds are ongoing. Seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the basin, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, aside from areas impacted by the aforementioned low pressure, expect fresh to strong winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California through Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Longer period southerly swell of 6 to 8 ft is still present east of 90W, reaching as far as the coast of western Panama. Elsewhere, seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted across the region. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will continue south of 06N into Mon, along with long period S to SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on low pressure offshore of southern Mexico that is expected to become a tropical depression by the middle of the week and impact waters near the Revillagigedo Islands late the week. Long period SW swell of 7 to 8 ft is present mainly south of 03N and east of 120W, along with moderate southerly winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle breezes persist with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, aside from impacts from the expected tropical development east of 125W, long period SW swell will continue to dominate. Farther west, building high pressure farther north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W starting Mon. $$ KONARIK