738 AXPZ20 KNHC 031601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 3 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave located southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next few days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward, passing well south of mainland Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours, but a high chance within in the next 7 days. Regardless of whether this system becomes a tropical cyclone in the next two to three days, there is the potential for strong winds and rough seas near the Revillagigedo Islands by late Thu. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W, moving west at around 5 kt. 1009 mb low pressure is centered where the wave meets the monsoon trough at 11.5N98W. Convection near the tropical wave is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 14N110W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 12N to 14N between 95W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section above for information on an area of low pressure that may develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week well offshore southwest Mexico. Strong N gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with seas of up to 8 ft. Moderate NW winds are occurring within 120 nm of the west coast of Mexico from Guerrero to the central Gulf of California. Otherwise, gentle winds prevail. Seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the basin, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Expect fresh to strong winds along the Baja California coast and parts of the Gulf of California through Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens along the peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Long period S swell is extending seas of 8 to 10 ft as far north as the coast of western Panama, possible causing locally rough surf. Elsewhere 5 to 7 ft seas are noted. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing offshore Guatemala beyond 90 nm. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds will continue south of 8N through Mon, along with long period S to SW swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail, except locally moderate to fresh near the Gulf of Papagayo pulsing tonight and Mon night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for details on low pressure offshore of southern Mexico that is expected to become a tropical depression by the middle of next week and impact waters near the Revillagigedo Islands late next week. Long period SW swell of 7 to 8 ft is present mainly south of 07N and east of 125W, along with moderate southerly winds. Elsewhere, gentle breezes persist with 5 to 7 ft combined seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, aside from likely impacts from the expected tropical development east of 125W, long period SW swell will continue to dominate. Farther west, building high pressure farther north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 20N west of 125W starting early this week. $$ Christensen