000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific Gale Warning (EP92): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located about 700 miles SSW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form in the next day or so while the system moves WNW or NW at 10 to 15 kt over the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific. For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and through 7 days. Expect rough to very rough seas associated with this system over the next few days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 118W from 06N to 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 11N to 18N between 117W and 122W. This wave is associated with Invest EP92, which is described in the Special Features Section. A tropical wave is along 127W from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 15N between 125W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica/Nicaragua near 11N86W to 18N110W to 09N124W to a 1007 mb low pres near 09N140W. The ITCZ extends beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 18N between 100W and 130W and from 07N to 11N between 135W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends toward the Baja California Peninsula anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure near 37N153W. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting mostly gentle to moderate N to NW winds, with fresh winds near the coast north of Punta Eugenia. Seas range 4 to 5 ft in mostly NW swell in the offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia. Fresh to strong winds due to Invest EP92 are impacting the outer offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Seas in this area range 5 to 8 ft, with the highest seas noted S of 20N and W of 113W in mostly southerly swell. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the SW Mexican offshore waters with seas of 4 to 6 ft in S swell. Winds in the Gulf of California are light to gentle with seas to 4 ft, higher at the entrance of the Gulf. Thunderstorms persist in the offshore waters of Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. Expect gusty winds with some of the stronger thunderstorms. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro will extend to Cabo San Lucas by Sun evening. These winds will persist through midweek. The fresh to strong winds well S of Cabo San Lucas due to Invest EP92 will improve by Sun. Rough seas in the outer offshore waters of Baja California Sur will subside by Sun night. Northerly swell will bring 8-9 ft seas N of Punta Eugenia by Mon night and will persist most of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle S to SW winds prevail across most of the offshore waters N of 02N with seas of 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters, moderate to locally fresh S winds with seas 4 to 6 ft S swell are noted. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through midweek. By Wednesday, an increase of southerly swell and seas to 8 ft could impact the Galapagos Island offshore waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds will prevail through most of the week with slight to moderate seas in SW swell. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section for details on Invest EP92, which has high chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 2 to 7 days. The pressure gradient between surface ridging N of 16N and low pressure associated with Invest EP92 and a low embedded in the monsoon trough near 140W are maintaining moderate to fresh N to NE winds. These winds are mostly N of the monsoon trough to 23N and W of 115W. Around Invest EP92, fresh to strong winds are noted in the NW quadrant of the low pressure with seas to 12 ft. Meanwhile, seas associated with the low near 10N140W range 8 to 9 ft. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas prevail N of 23N and W of 125W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted S of EP92, with gentle to moderate SW winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Features, the low pressure of EP92 will likely develop and move NW to WNW through Thu morning. Expect rough to very rough seas with this system. Meanwhile, the low pressure near 139W will continue to support rough seas to 9 ft over the far western tropical waters through Mon evening. Northerly swell will move south over the open waters W of the Baja California offshore waters Mon night through at least Thu night. Seas in excess of 8 ft will reach as far south as 20N and then merge with mixed swell associated with Invest EP92. Southerly swell in the far southern waters could see 8 to 9 ft seas by Mon night. This swell area could travel as far north as 05N between 92W and 120W through Thu night. $$ AReinhart