000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South of Southern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves slowly to the northwest or north-northwest. Interests in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical East Pacific between 110W and 125W: Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located well south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward over the central portion of the tropical eastern Pacific between 110W and 125W. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 108W north of 06N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis and north the monsoon trough from 07N to 15N between 106W and 114W. A tropical wave is along 121W north of 04N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 17N to 15N between 118W and 123W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 12N87W to 11N112W to 10N125W to 07N140W. The ITCZ extends beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N and E of 92W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 109W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... N to NW Winds off Baja California have become moderate to locally fresh between the subtropical ridge to the west and troughing over northwest Mexico. Seas range 5 to 6 ft within mostly NW swell. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds persist over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These gap winds are largely due to relatively lower pressure along the monsoon trough over the tropical eastern Pacific. Seas are to 8 ft in the Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle breezes dominate the rest of the southern Mexico offshore waters with seas to 6 ft in mostly S to SW swell. Strong thunderstorms are noted near Cabo Corrientes and the Michoacan offshore waters. Light winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight, then taper off Fri. Moderate to fresh NW winds will persist off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro through Fri between high pressure west of the region and lower pressure over Mexico. Winds and seas may increase off Guerrero and Michoacan late Fri through late Sat as the low mentioned in the Special Features develops and impacts the offshore waters. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of southern Mexico. Please consult with local weather services for more information. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight scatterometer satellite pass verified the fresh to locally strong SW winds over the offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to El Salvador. This is still persisting this morning. Earlier altimeter pass farther offshore from this morning showed seas to 8 ft Altimeter satellite data from farther offshore shows seas to 8 ft, likely reaching the outer offshore waters. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active over these waters as well. Light to gentle breezes persist elsewhere with moderate SW swell. For the forecast, the active monsoon trough will continue to support fresh SW winds and rough seas off Costa Rica, Nicaragua and El Salvador through tonight. These winds and seas will diminish Fri as the monsoon trough lifts north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail, primarily in SW swell through the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Showers and thunderstorms are starting to get a little more organized near 1009 mb low pressure mentioned in the Special Features section, centered along the monsoon trough near 11N108W. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas to 8 ft are occurring near the low. Recent altimeter satellite passes showed seas of 8 to 9 ft in the area of SW winds east of 115W, although this is largely due to longer period SW swell propagating through the region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted N of the monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh SW winds are noted S of the monsoon trough with seas 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Features, low pressure areas will likely develop along the monsoon trough and move to the northwest or west-northwest through early next week. The main impact area through Sun will be the tropical eastern Pacific from 05N to 20N between 110W and 125W. $$ AReinhart