000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221557
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Aug 22 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 97W north of 06N, moving westward 
around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is from 07N-15N between 89W to 104W.

A tropical wave extends from 04N-17N with axis near 113W, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N-15N between 113W-117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 13N115W to 
08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 
07N-15N between 89W to 104W and north of 05N east of 84W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-15N between 
113W-117W and from 06N-13N between 118W-123W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A narrow plume of fresh to strong NE winds are occurring over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh NW 
winds are observed over the central and S Gulf of California with
seas 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or lighter with seas 
of 5-6 ft across the Mexican offshore waters, except for 1-3 ft 
in the N Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the N gap winds will continue to pulse mainly 
at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night. 
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form 
offshore of the coast of Central America or S Mexico during the 
next few days. Environmental conditions appear generally 
favorable for gradual development of this system. A tropical 
depression could form late this week while it moves slowly 
northwest to north- northwest, possibly supporting strong winds 
and rough seas off Oaxaca and Guerrero late Fri into 
Sat.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, 
COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A pronounced monsoon trough is producing significant convection
(noted above) as well as fresh to strong SW winds south of the
trough axis. Seas are 6-9 ft. North of the monsoon trough axis, 
winds are gentle or lighter with seas 5-6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse 
across the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight into Wed. Fresh to 
occasionally strong SW winds will persist over offshore waters of
Costa Rica and W Panama with 6 to 8 ft seas into mid-week as 
broad low pressure develops along the monsoon trough. The low and
associated winds and seas will lift northward into Nicaragua 
offshore waters Thu and Fri then diminish. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from 30N125W to 15N110W.
The weak pressure gradient between the ridging and the monsoon
trough/ITCZ is forcing only moderate or lighter trades. Seas are
6-7 ft in mixed swell. A pronounced monsoon trough is producing 
significant convection (noted above) as well as fresh to strong 
SW winds east of 105W south of the trough axis with seas are 6-9 
ft. 

For the forecast, SW winds will increase south of the monsoon 
trough and east of 120W through Thursday. The surface ridge
should strengthen on Fri and Sat, forcing fresh NE trades and
seas to 9 ft.

$$
Landsea