000
AXPZ20 KNHC 212206
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Aug 21 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is near 94W extending southward across the 
central Bay of Campeche to the Pacific waters N of 04N, moving 
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
15N between 90W and 100W.

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 16N with axis near 108W, 
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
mainly behind the wave axis from 04N to 15N between 98W and 
111W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N102W to  
15N116W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered to numerous moderate convection is 
across the offshore waters from Colombia to southern Nicaragua or
N of 03N between 77W and 89W. Scattered moderate convection is
elsewhere within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough W of 110W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to locally strong northerly gap winds continue across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 7 ft this evening. A weak 
pressure gradient prevails across most of the region, which is 
supporting light to gentle N to NW winds along the Baja 
California offshore waters, confirmed by recent scatterometer 
data. An altimeter pass showed seas in the 5 to 6 ft range in
this region. Similar winds and seas are along the SW Mexican
offshore waters. Along the Gulf of California, a surface trough
supports gentle to moderate NW winds and seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, the northerly gap winds will continue to pulse
mainly at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu night.
Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form 
offshore of the coast of Central America or southern Mexico 
during the next few days. Any subsequent development of this 
system should be slow to occur while it drifts toward the 
northwest or north-northwest, possibly supporting fresh winds 
and rough seas off western Oaxaca and Guerrero Thu night through 
Fri night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate gap winds are across Papagayo with seas to 6 ft. 
Farther south, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with an
active E Pacific monsoon trough is supporting fresh to locally strong
SW winds and rough seas south of its axis and across the 
offshore waters from Colombia to southern Nicaragua. Otherwise, 
gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are 
between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will pulse 
at night across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Wed. Fresh 
to strong SW monsoon winds will persist over offshore waters of 
Costa Rica and western Panama with 6 to 8 ft seas into mid-week 
as broad low pressure develops along the monsoon trough. The low 
and associated winds and seas will lift northward into Nicaragua 
offshore waters Wed and Thu then diminish. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Fresh southerly winds remain south of the monsoon trough between
90W and 105W with combined seas of 6-8 ft. Also, 7 to 8 ft seas 
are north of 25N between 125W and 140W in mixed swell. Elsewhere
in the basin, a weak pressure pattern prevails sustaining 
moderate or weaker and moderate seas.

For the forecast, SW winds will continue to increase south of 
the monsoon trough and east of 120W through midweek. High 
pressure will weaken modestly west of 120W through mid-week and 
bring a return to moderate NE trade winds south of 20N.

$$
Ramos