000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150343
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Aug 15 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 16.5N 119.8W at 15/0300 UTC,
moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with
gusts to 130 kt. Fernanda is beginning to weaken and now it is a
Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Additional weakening is forecast during the next several days. On
the forecast track, a westward to west-northwestward motion with
an increase in forward speed is expected during the next several
days. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90nm of 
the center. Peak seas are currently around 32 ft with 12 ft seas
extending 150 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the NW quadrant, 
and 90 nm in the S semicircle. Seas will continue to stay above 
20 ft through Thu, with seas subsiding by the end of the week as 
the system approaches 140W.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Fernanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Off the Coast of Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the southern
coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. A low pressure of
1008 mb is analyzed near 09.5N95.5W. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is
expected to form within the next two to three days, while the
system moves west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico. This system has a high 
chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours, and in 7 
days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 95W/96W from 07N northward to southern 
Mexico, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A low pressure of 1008 mb is 
along the wave axis near 09.5N95.5W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm N semicircle
and 90 nm SE quadrant.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 1008 mb low pressure
located near 09.5N95.5W to 11N114W. The ITCZ axis stretches from 
11N24W to 12N138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 05N to 13N between 90W and 112W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 08N to 11N between 120W and 127W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec with seas to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds 
are seen across the Baja California offshore waters along with 
seas of 4-6 ft. Locally fresh winds are noted along off the Baja 
California Norte coast. Inside the Gulf of California, light to 
gentle winds are noted with seas to 3 ft. Gentle to locally 
moderate winds are noted elsewhere off the southern Mexico 
offshore waters with 4-6 ft seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore
the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro
mainly at night through the next few days. Gap winds in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec will increase to fresh to strong tonight and 
eventually merge with a potential tropical cyclone. Looking 
ahead, a broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical 
wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms off the 
southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Please,
see the Special Features section for more details. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

An area of fresh to strong winds with seas of 8 ft is noted in 
across the off shore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador as well
as parts of the offshore waters of Nicaragua and northern Costa 
Rica. These winds are related to a broad area of low pressure 
associated with a tropical wave. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
westerly winds are noted north of 05N, and mainly moderate south 
to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 4-6 ft due to long- 
period SW swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-4 ft 
offshore Colombia. 

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure associated with a
tropical wave is producing widespread showers and thunderstorms 
off the southern coasts of Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is expected to form within the next two to 
three days, while the system moves west-northwestward, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Fresh to strong winds will continue over the Central American 
offshore waters through Tue night with building seas. Meanwhile, 
winds will pulse fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of Papagayo 
at night through the rest of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for details 
on Hurricane Fernanda.

Tropical Storm Greg is W of the forecast waters. A small are of
seas to 8 ft related to Greg is still noted over the forecast
waters, particularly from 13N to 15N W of 139W. These seas will 
subside below 8 ft later tonight.  

Meanwhile, a ridge dominates the waters N of 20N and W of 110W.  
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail under the 
influence of the ridge. Seas range 4-7 ft. 

For the forecast, based on latest NHC forecast advisory Fernanda
will move to 17.0N 121.2W Tue morning, 17.4N 123.5W Tue evening,
17.6N 126.0W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 17.8N 
128.7W Wed evening, 18.0N 131.5W Thu morning, and weaken to a 
remnant low near 18.1N 134.6W Thu evening. Fernanda will change 
little in intensity as it moves to near 18.2N 141.0W late Fri.

$$
GR