000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141001 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 14 2023 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fernanda is centered near 15.6N 117.2W at 14/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Satellite imagery depicts a cyclone that is continuing to rapidly intensify. An eye feature has become clearly visible in the imagery. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm NE and 90 nm SE semicircles of the center. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 13N137W. Fernanda is forecast to maintain its general motion with some increase in forward speed over the next few days. Additional rapid intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and Fernanda is now forecast to become a Category 4 hurricane by tomorrow. Gradual weakening is expected to begin thereafter. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fernanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Eight-E is centered near 11.4N 138.6W at 14/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows that convection occurring with this system has become persistent near and to the west of its center. This convection consists of the scattered moderate to isolated strong intensity within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of 13N137W. The depression is forecast to maintain its current motion during the next few days. It is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on Mon near 11.5N140W with a maximum sustained wind speed of 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. It is forecast to gradually strengthen as it moves farther away from the discussion during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression Eight-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 09N79W to 08N91W to 08N100W to 09N100W. The ITCZ extends from 10N119W to 11N135W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of trough between 78W-83W, between 89W-94W and also from 05N to 09N between 103W-110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of trough between 106W-110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30N, while moderate S to SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. Hurricane Fernanda is expected to move generally west-northwestward away from the area. This will allow for moderate S to SE swell to the southwest of Isla Socorro to subside into early Mon. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through the next few days. Fresh north gap winds are forecast to pulse in the Tehuantepec region through Mon, and may increase to fresh to strong speeds beginning on Tue through the end of the forecast period as a tropical depression is expected to form from an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Pacific associated with a tropical wave. The tropical system is expected to move generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico though the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 91W. Light to gentle westerly winds are elsewhere north of 05N, and mainly moderate south to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft due to a long- period south to southwest swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-6 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh easterly winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish early Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through early Tue. Looking ahead, a tropical wave along 91W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by midweek while the system moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time, mainly across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please refer to the section above for details on Hurricane Fernanda and on newly formed Tropical Depression Eight-E in the far western part of the area. Outside of the systems mentioned above, a weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A surface ridge remains in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast, latest NHC forecast advisory has Hurricane Fernanda continuing to rapidly intensify over the next day or so. It is forecast to become a Category 4 by tomorrow. It is forecast to reach near 15.8N 118.3W by early Mon with maximum sustained wind speed of 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, to near 16.3N 119.8W by early Mon evening with a maximum sustained wind speed of 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, then begin to weaken as it reaches near 16.9N 121.6 with a maximum sustained wind speed of 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt by early Tue and to near 17.2N 123.8W by early Tue evening with a maximum sustained wind speed of 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Fernanda is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 17.7N 134.6W by early Thu evening and to a post-tropical remnant low by early Fri evening near 18N140.5W. $$ Aguirre