000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fernanda is centered near 15.4N 115.9W at 13/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 14N to 17N between 114W and 117W. Seas in excess of 12 ft are expected within 30 nm NW and SE quadrants, 90 nm NE quadrant and 15 nm sw quadrant, with maximum of 14 ft. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Fernanda is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fernanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Western East Pacific Invest (EP99): Satellite wind data indicate the circulation associated with an area of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is gradually becoming better defined. The center is analyzed near 11N136W. Although its shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days as it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the far western portion of the basin, and then crosses into the Central Pacific basin late tonight. THis system has a high chance for tropical development within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 10N105W, then resumes from 12N117W to 10N127W. THe ITCZ is analyzed from 10N137W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 03N to 15N and E of 111W, from 06N to 13N between 119W and 126W, and from 06N to 14N and W of 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30 The depression is expected to move generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. N, while moderate S to SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through early next week. Fresh to strong north gap winds are forecast to pulse in the Tehuantepec region through Tue, and may increase to fresh to strong speeds toward the end of the forecast period as a tropical depression is expected to form from an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Pacific associated with a tropical wave. The depression is expected to move generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region reaching westward to near 90W. Light to gentle westerly winds are elsewhere north of 05N, and mainly moderate south to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft due to long- period south to southwest swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through tonight. Looking ahead, a tropical wave with axis along 86W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by midweek while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time, mainly across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Fernanda and on Invest EP99. Outside of the systems mentioned above, a weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A surface ridge remains in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fernanda will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.6N 117.2W this evening, move to 16.0N 118.7W Mon morning, 16.4N 120.4W Mon evening, 16.9N 122.2W Tue morning, 17.3N 124.3W Tue evening, and 17.5N 126.5W Wed morning. Fernanda will weaken to a tropical storm near 17.8N 132.0W by early Thu. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming week as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. $$ ERA