000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The previous Invest named EP98 is now Tropical Depression Seven-E, centered near 14.9N 113.2W at 12/2100 UTC, and moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Max seas to 9 ft are expected within the area of strongest winds. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 11N to 17N between 110W and 116W. Steady strengthening is expected with this system, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Seven-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Western East Pacific Invest EP99: A tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 137W from 04N to 16N. This system is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 kt across the far western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin late Sunday. This system also has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N102W, then resumes near 13N115W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 03N-11N and E of 104W, and from 04N-17N between 109W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30N, while moderate S to SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro mainly at night through early next week. Fresh to strong north gap winds are forecast to pulse in the Tehuantepec region Sun through Tue, and may increase to fresh to strong speeds toward the end of the forecast period as an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo region reaching westward to near 89W. Light to gentle westerly winds are elsewhere north of 05N, and mainly moderate south to southwest winds between the Equator and 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 3-5 ft due to long-period south to southwest swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore Central America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time, mainly across the outer offshore waters from northern Costa Rica to Guatemala. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the section above for details on T.S. Seven-E and Invest EP99. Outside of the systems mentioned above, a weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A surface ridge remains in control of the weather conditions across the region. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Seven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.2N 114.2W Sun morning, move to 15.5N 115.9W Sun afternoon, 15.7N 117.6W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.1N 119.2W Mon afternoon, 16.6N 120.8W Tue morning, and 17.1N 122.8W Tue afternoon. Seven-E will weaken to a tropical storm near 17.6N 127.7W by Wed afternoon. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. $$ ERA