030 AXPZ20 KNHC 111545 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave with axis along 108W. This tropical wave was relocated farther E on the 1200 UTC surface map. Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward or northwestward at about 5-10 kt across the central portion of the basin. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 132W from 04N to 17N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with the wave. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the far western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on Sunday. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across Panama and southern Costa Rica to a 1009 mb low pressure located near 12N108W to 10N120W to 08N134W. The ITCZ extends from 08N134W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 03N to 08N E of 82W to the coast of Colombia, from 03n to 14N between 82W and 92W, from 07N to 15N between 100W and 110W, from 04N to 11N between 112W and 120W, and from 05N to 13N W of 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure is located well northwest of the area, with a ridge that extends east-southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The associated weak pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure over Baja California and northwest Mexico is producing moderate or weaker northwest winds, but higher speeds of moderate to fresh are within about 60-90 nm offshore the coasts from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. Seas are in the general range of 4-6 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southeast winds are south of 30N, while moderate to fresh SW winds prevail across northern part of the Gulf, where seas are 3-4 ft. Seas are generally 1-3 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds offshore the coast of Baja California from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas will continue through early next week. Fresh to locally strong N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night Sat through Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate east gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with moderate or weaker east to southeast winds are elsewhere north of 10N and gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are south of 10N. Seas are 3-5 ft in southerly swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of Panama, and offshore Colombia. For the forecast, offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. Expect increasing winds, seas, and unsettled weather during this time. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A very weak pressure gradient remains west about 110W. A ridge extends east-southeastward from high pressure that is centered well northwest of the Hawaiian Islands to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are under the influence of the ridge. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough is producing gentle to moderate northeast trade winds from 11N to 23N and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are present south of the monsoon trough mainly between 108W-112W, and between 123W-128W. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. For the forecast, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters through the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. $$ GR