000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100344 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W north of 04N to Central America, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 103W from 04N to 16N, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 123W from 04N northward to 16N, is moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 09.5N90W to 08.5N107W to 10N117W to 05N131W. The ITCZ extends from 12N135W to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 06.5N E of 83W, and from 02.5N to 05.5N between 83W and 93W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13.5N between 93W and 110W, and within 60 nm either side of line from 16N118W to 11N122W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11.5N between 121W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene remains just west of the Baja California Norte waters near 27.5N121W, and is disrupting the typical surface ridge extending into the area. As a result, winds across most of the Baja waters are moderate or weaker this evening, but have become moderate to fresh within 90 nm of the coasts from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4-5 ft offshore and 5-6 ft within the area of moderate to fresh winds. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are generally variable at 10 kt or less. However, fresh westerly gap winds have started across northern portions. Seas area generally 3 ft or less across the Gulf except to 4 ft near the entrance. Strong thunderstorms across central portions of the Gulf has diminished in intensity in the past few hours. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore southern Mexico S of 14N associated with a tropical wave. Locally higher winds and seas may be near this convection. For the forecast, Moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas through Thu night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate W to SW gap winds across the N Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to strong at night through Thu night. Fresh to locally strong N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week as it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in southerly swell, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia, Panama, and eastern Costa Rica, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms will shift W across the offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica through tonight. Offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week as it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tropical wave along 103W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described above several hundred NM south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward at about 15 kt across the central portion of the basin. Otherwise, the 1013 mb remnant low of Eugene is centered near 27.5N121W with only moderate winds and seas of around 6 ft. Another 1013 mb low center is analyzed N of the ITCZ near 17.5N133W with moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to around 7 ft in the NW quadrant of the low. Otherwise, weak ridging extends across the majority of the waters N of the convergence zone. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters. Seas are 5-7 ft, except 7-8 ft from near 18N to 25N and W of 135W in remnant, fresh NE swell. For the forecast, the remnants of Eugene will drift NE and gradually dissipate during the next 12-24 hours. The NE swell across the NW and W-central waters will subside through the next 12 hours. Meanwhile, the weak low currently near 17.5N133W should drift northwestward and dissipate tonight. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. Looking ahead, another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described above. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system during the next several days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt across the far western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific basin. $$ Stripling