000 AXPZ20 KNHC 092107 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Aug 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W north of 04N to Central America and the far NW Caribbean, moving west at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 102W/103W from 02N to near the SW Mexican coast, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described below. A tropical wave is along 122W/123W from 04N northward to 16N, is moving west at around 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is described below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N89W to 10N103W to 05N120W. The ITCZ extends from 12N134W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 82W, from 03N to 18N between 92W and 110W, and from 06N to 14N between 119W and 127W. Similar convection is noted from 21N to 26N between 105W and 110W, including the entrance to the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eugene remains just west of the Baja California Norte waters near 27N122W, and is disrupting the typical surface ridge extending into the area. As a result, winds across the waters are moderate or weaker this afternoon per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, to 4 ft near the entrance, and 4-6 ft across the open waters in mainly long period southerly swell. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring offshore southern Mexico due to the proximity of a tropical wave, and also from near Cabo Corrientes to the entrance of the Gulf of California. Locally higher winds and seas may be near this convection. For the forecast, moderate NW winds will pulse to fresh to strong across the near-shore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas through Thu night, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate W to SW gap winds across the N Gulf of California will pulse to fresh to locally strong at night through Thu night. Fresh to locally strong N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sat night and Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week as it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E gap winds are occurring across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in southerly swell, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring offshore Colombia and Panama, potentially leading to locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms may shift across the offshore waters of Colombia and Panama through at least tonight. Offshore winds will pulse to moderate to fresh at night into the early morning hours in the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail through Sun night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop early next week offshore of Central America. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the early and middle parts of next week as it moves generally west- northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of southern Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described above several hundred NM south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by the weekend or early next week while it moves generally westward at about 15 kt across the central portion of the basin. Otherwise, the nearly stationary 1012 mb remnant low of Eugene is centered near 27N122W with only moderate winds and seas of around 6 ft. Another 1012 mb low is analyzed N of the ITCZ near 17.5N133W with moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to around 7 ft in the N quadrant of the low. Otherwise, weak ridging extends across the majority of the waters N of the convergence zone. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters. Seas are 5-7 ft, except 7-8 ft from near 18N to 25N and W of 135W in remnant, fresh NE swell. For the forecast, the remnants of Eugene will gradually dissipate during the next 12 hours. The NE swell across the NW and W-central waters will subside through the next 12 hours. Meanwhile, the weak low currently near 17.5N133W should drift northwestward and dissipate through tonight. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions are forecast across the open waters for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend as a weak pressure pattern dominates the region. Looking ahead, another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described above. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system during the next several days as it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 kt across the far western portion of the basin and into the Central Pacific basin. $$ Lewitsky